Praetorian Guard

I really ought to read up on Roman history sometime. And why does this description of American soldiers, from a Frenchman, remind me so much of Rome?
 
http://johnringo.com/Home/tabid/1574/EntryID/71/language/en-US/Default.aspx
 
Here we discover America as it is often depicted : their values are taken to their paroxysm, often amplified by promiscuity and the loneliness of this outpost in the middle of that Afghan valley. Honor, motherland - everything here reminds of that : the American flag floating in the wind above the outpost, just like the one on the post parcels. Even if recruits often originate from the hearth of American cities and gang territory, no one here has any goal other than to hold high and proud the star spangled banner. Each man knows he can count on the support of a whole people who provides them through the mail all that an American could miss in such a remote front-line location : books, chewing gums, razorblades, Gatorade, toothpaste etc. in such way that every man is aware of how much the American people backs him in his difficult mission. And that is a first shock to our preconceptions : the American soldier is no individualist. The team, the group, the combat team are the focus of all his attention.
 
And they are impressive warriors ! We have not come across bad ones, as strange at it may seem to you when you know how critical French people can be. Even if some of them are a bit on the heavy side, all of them provide us everyday with lessons in infantry know-how. Beyond the wearing of a combat kit that never seem to discomfort them (helmet strap, helmet, combat goggles, rifles etc.) the long hours of watch at the outpost never seem to annoy them in the slightest. On the one square meter wooden tower above the perimeter wall they stand the five consecutive hours in full battle rattle and night vision goggles on top, their sight unmoving in the directions of likely danger. No distractions, no pauses, they are like statues nights and days. At night, all movements are performed in the dark - only a handful of subdued red lights indicate the occasional presence of a soldier on the move. Same with the vehicles whose lights are covered - everything happens in pitch dark even filling the fuel tanks with the Japy pump. [snip]
 
We seldom hear any harsh word, and from 5 AM onwards the camp chores are performed in beautiful order and always with excellent spirit. A passing American helicopter stops near a stranded vehicle just to check that everything is alright; an American combat team will rush to support ours before even knowing how dangerous the mission is - from what we have been given to witness, the American soldier is a beautiful and worthy heir to those who liberated France and Europe.
 
To those who bestow us with the honor of sharing their combat outposts and who everyday give proof of their military excellence, to those who pay the daily tribute of America's army's deployment on Afghan soil, to those we owned this article, ourselves hoping that we will always remain worthy of them and to always continue hearing them say that we are all the same band of brothers".
 
I've mentioned this before, but I don't think Daniel 2:41-42 refers only to Rome. I think it refers at least as much, and perhaps primarily, to the United States of America.
 
-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Life-to-date

[To blog: I edited this a bit before sending it on. It's a reply to an old, old friend who asked me for a summary of my life since leaving Olympia.]

M.,

It's nice to hear from you. Yes, in fact, I did move to Hawaii. Senior year, I think, which was kind of irritating actually. I'm more mellow about it now, but there were a couple of things that drove me nuts. One is that--well, you don't know this, but I have a lot of patriotic sentiment running in my veins, and they're kind of anti-American over there. (I know, it doesn't make any sense, they *are* American. But there you have it.) So that kind of got under my skin. The other thing was that I thought the girls in Washington were cuter. :) Shallow, I know, but I was pretty attached to our Olympia girls, especially the ones in my ward at church, and I resented being yanked away. Anyway, I was only there for nine or ten months and then I left for college (BYU), served my mission in the Philippines ('99 to '01), and came back to BYU for my Bachelors'. I was originally planning on going into genetic engineering, but it rapidly became clear to me that the technology wasn't yet as good as I had thought it was, and that we were a long ways away from being able to do the interesting stuff. (It really bugged me that we couldn't even predict what a protein would look like from knowing its codon sequence--we knew the amino acids, but we couldn't predict which way it would fold. I understand there have been some advances made since then.) Anyway, I had taken some computer programming classes at the same time just out of general interest, and eventually I decided that if I couldn't build nanomachines that I'd build software: a computer programmer is someone who is so lazy that he will spend three days writing himself a program to save ten minutes. :) Because then, hopefully, you never have to do that ten-minute job ever again, and neither does anyone else in the world.

Anyway, I finished in 2005, and stayed on to take some grad classes. Eventually I decided that I wasn't smart enough for grad school, or at least my research wasn't going anywhere, and so in 2007 I dropped out to work for, yes, Microsoft. Good guess. :) I work on a team that makes tools for developers, with a particular focus on networking applications. You probably know that programs and web sites are usually not written from scratch; there are a lot of sort of pre-assembled pieces that perform common tasks and get re-used between e.g. Gmail, ebay, and blogspot (to pick three random examples). I help build some of those common pieces that come for free with Windows. Anyway, enough geekiness from me today.

Let's see, what else do I owe you a response on? A day in the life:

Depending upon how cold it is outside and whether I'm having good habits that week, I get up at 5 a.m. or so and go running along my regular route a little bit north of my apartment complex, through a residential neighborhood. I get back by 5:30 or 6:00, depending upon whether I get lazy and cut in short, and... you know, somehow time vanishes into gaps in the morning. I'm not sure where it goes. I shower and eat and read my scriptures and check my email and somehow I never get to work before 8:00 at the earliest, although of course that's still an hour or two hours before the building actually starts to fill up. I usually leave work between 5:30 and 7:00 p.m., and if it's a Monday night I go to Family Night (I'm single, so of course I can't have *real* Family Night with my non-existent wife and kids, so my singles' ward at church gets together instead to have a lesson and play games and have treats--one that I really liked was where we did human foosball in the gym). On Tuesday I usually go to Institute of Religion class (like seminary, but for adults). Wednesdays I sometimes go see a movie or a play, but I often try to go to the temple and help with some ordinances. (You know I'm technically a priest, right? Actually you probably didn't.) Thursday and Friday are kind of open-ended. I guess I usually end up reading on those nights or playing games, or going out with girls. (Again, that depends on how social I'm feeling.) Saturday is weekend tasks like shopping, laundry, etc., and Sunday is church and rest time, and maybe write some letters and stuff. That's pretty much what my weeks look like, I think.
 
[Remarks of merely personal relevance deleted]

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

If Programming Languages Were Religions

I thought this was hilarious. :) http://www.aegisub.net/2008/12/if-programming-languages-were-religions.html
 
C would be Judaism - it's old and restrictive, but most of the world is familiar with its laws and respects them. The catch is, you can't convert into it - you're either into it from the start, or you will think that it's insanity. Also, when things go wrong, many people are willing to blame the problems of the world on it.

Java would be Fundamentalist Christianity - it's theoretically based on C, but it voids so many of the old laws that it doesn't feel like the original at all. Instead, it adds its own set of rigid rules, which its followers believe to be far superior to the original. Not only are they certain that it's the best language in the world, but they're willing to burn those who disagree at the stake.

C# would be Mormonism - At first glance, it's the same as Java, but at a closer look you realize that it's controlled by a single corporation (which many Java followers believe to be evil), and that many theological concepts are quite different. You suspect that it'd probably be nice, if only all the followers of Java wouldn't discriminate so much against you for following it.

Lisp would be Zen Buddhism... [continued]

 -Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Polywell fusion

This news is a little old so I may have an update later, but it looks like WB-7 was enough of a success that there may be a WB-100 (which I gather is a supposed to be scaled up to the break-even energy point).

-Max

 

--

"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

 

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Choice and Parenthood

http://dir.salon.com/mwt/feature/2003/05/06/breeding/index2.html

For all the truth about the innate physiological rewards of mothering, he says, "The happy people are the ones who wanted kids and had them or didn't want kids and didn't have them.'

I have my doubts about the biases of the writer, but this statement rings true to me. Marriage, and raising a family, is a lot of work; it helps to know what you're getting into, and if you don't want it that much you're better off not starting. (c.f. Luke 14:28-30)

-Max

-- "The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Nuclear Power-In-A-Box

I think this is more on an idea I sent you earlier this year. Apparently they're putting one up in Alaska, although I don't know the timeframe (and Obama's administration could presumably kill the idea). http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/03/business/03power.html?_r=1

There is a coal seam about 10 miles away. But no one builds coal plants that are small and clean enough, said the manager, Marvin Yoder, and the cost of permits to open a new mine might make the whole project impractical.

The town even looked at solar power, Mr. Yoder said. But demand in Galena is highest in winter, when it is dark 20 hours a day, and residents need electricity to keep cars and even diesel fuel from freezing.

But then along came Toshiba, which performs maintenance and repair work on conventional nuclear reactors around the world. The company is trying to develop a new reactor that would run almost unattended and put out 10 megawatts of power, about 1 percent as much as a typical United States plant.

It sees Galena as a test market for a product that could appeal to other isolated small towns, factories and mines.

Toshiba offered Galena a free reactor if the town would pay the operating costs, estimated at 10 cents a kilowatt-hour, about the national average for power. In December the City Council voted unanimously to take it.
 
-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Fireball

This video makes me appreciate the Sun.

 

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Cheerful

A friend wrote me and asked:  

You used to have a line in your signature that went something "be polite if it kills you".  What do you think that means?  

"Be pretty if you are, Be witty if you can, But be cheerful if it kills you." It means that you don't need to let your emotional state leak into your demeanor. E.g. this can still be a good-natured, cheerful interaction.

  

M: Hey, how's it going?

J: Pretty rotten actually. My dad just died and I'm processing it emotionally.

M: Oh, that's too bad!

J: Yeah, well. How are you?

  

Compare this positive, upbeat worldview with someone who gets all gloomy.

  

M: Hey, how's it going?

V: Rotten. My life stinks.

M: What's wrong?

V: My boss just called me to come in for some overtime and now I can't find my keys. My life stinks.

M: Um, that's too bad.

  

It's all about keeping perspective. You know everything's going to be fine in the long run. Do you rule your emotions or let them rule you?

  

-Max

  

--

"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

 

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

 

A Tale of Courage

'If you move, Sir, one of us is going to die'

When he saw a man fall into the path of a New York subway train, Wesley Autrey did not hesitate.

The 50-year-old building worker jumped down on to the track and tried desperately to haul him to safety.

But the man, who had suffered a seizure, struggled. And as certain death roared towards them, Mr Autrey made a decision of breathtaking courage.

Instead of saving himself, he pushed the man down into the space between the tracks and lay on top of him, wrapping his arms and legs tightly around him.

With the train just feet away, he told 20-year- old Cameron Hollopeter: 'Please sir, don't move. If you move, one of us is going to lose a leg or die.'

Next second, the first carriage thundered over them before the train screeched to a halt. On the platform, Mr Autrey's two young daughters were among the crowd who had seen the heart-stopping moment and feared the worst.

Then Mr Autrey's voice rang out from below, calling for silence. And as a hush fell, he shouted: 'Tell my little girls that Daddy is okay and the man is okay!' Delighted onlookers burst into applause.

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

SYMs (Single Young Men)

http://www.city-journal.org/2008/18_4_darwinist_dating.html

 

Some interesting quotes from young men that make me think about China's male surplus and some of my male cousins and co-workers. Prolonged bachelorhood is not good for the soul, but I have no solutions to offer.

 

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Jujitsu

Since 2006, Iran's leaders have called for direct, unconditional talks with the United States to resolve international concerns over their nuclear program. But as an American administration open to such negotiations prepares to take power, Iran's political and military leaders are sounding suddenly wary of President-elect Barack Obama.

"People who put on a mask of friendship, but with the objective of betrayal, and who enter from the angle of negotiations without preconditions, are more dangerous," Hossein Taeb, deputy commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Wednesday, according to the semiofficial Mehr News Agency.

"The power holders in the new American government are trying to regain their lost influence with a tactical change in their foreign diplomacy. They are shifting from a hard conflict to a soft attack," Taeb said.

Heh heh heh. Go America!

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Ethics of restraint

[From another conference, in response to a news story about gay activists storming a church (http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2008/nov/08111104.html)]

Very interesting. One thing I've learned from watching Israel deal with its enemies in the Middle East: while it is tempting (and emotionally satisfying) to hit back against assaults like this, in the manner of "an eye for an eye," when coercive measures fail you will be left with a choice: either back down and let them stomp on you without stomping back, or make them all become dead.

Making people become dead is best reserved for existential threats, which gay activists are not. In this case, I personally feel it's best to attempt reconciliation before stomping on anybody at all. Thus, "turn the other cheek" is a directive of simple practicality as well as a gospel imperative. (cf. Joseph Smith and Governor Reynolds.)

Storm away, people. I'm sorry you're upset, and hope you feel better soon.

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Proposition 8

Interesting article. If you must skip, skip to the second page where the writer discusses prophetic counsel on responding.
 
-Max
 
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
 
"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Toxoplamsa gondi

Hold this for me please, will you? It came up in a discussion on homosexuality and I had to hunt it down again.
 
Thanks,
Max
 
http://www.jerrypournelle.com/science/cochran.html#IQ5

Toxoplasma gondi is a small intracellular protozoan parasite that can infect any warm-blooded animal. So says the Merck Manual, and imagine being the guy who proved _that_. It invades and multiplies asexually within the cytoplasm of nucleated host cells. With development of host immunity, multiplication slows and tissue cysts form. Sexual multiplication occurs in the intestinal cells of cats ( and apparently only cats) ; long-lasting oocytes are formed and shed in the stool.

Toxoplasmosis is dangerous in individuals with weak or incompletely developed immune systems. It can be devastating before birth, and is a big problem in people with AIDS. It likes to get into the brain - in animals other than cats.

This is a standard pattern - a parasite with a complex life cycle, that infects an intermediate host and enters the definite host ( cats ) when the definitive host eats the intermediate host. When this happens , manipulation of the intermediate host can help the parasite - manipulation that increases the chance of the intermediate host being eaten. I mentioned toxoplasmosis in a talk earlier this year and suggested that it might manipulate intermediate hosts, and it seems that it does. Recent work shows that uninfected rats fear and loathe the smell of cat urine. Infected rats are at best neutral - some actually seek out cat urine. Pretty obviously, toxoplasmosis is pushing buttons in the rat brain that increase its chances of ending up in a cat stomach. It doesn't appear to do much else - the rats act reasonably normally otherwise, don't look sick, etc.

I think that this supports two points I've been pushing - one, that persistent infections that don't cause obvious pathology may still be doing something, two, that we have to consider the possibility that infectious agents might alter behavior - including human behavior - as a part of their evolutionary strategy.

The third point is that having toxoplasma cysts in your brain may not be a good thing. Only a few billion people do. The infection rate varies a lot from place. It's about 20% in the U.S., about 87% in France ( which might explain a lot).

Thinking about this a bit more, it just might be that the state of being a cat-lover has a simple cause and cure.

Gregory Cochran

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Barnett on Bush

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2008/nov/09/what-bush--cheney-got-right-with-china/

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Educational Reform: (Graduating Early)

From my sister:

 

New Hampshire is planning to let 10th graders test out of the last two years of high school. Cool beans.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20081107/us_time/shouldkidsbeabletograduateafter10thgrade

 

-Max

Right now, Tucker argues, most American teenagers slide through high school, viewing it as a mandatory pit stop to hang out and socialize. Of those who do go to college, half attend community college. So Tucker's thinking is why not let them get started earlier? If that happened nationwide, he estimates the cost savings would add up to $60 billion a year. "All money that can be spent either on early childhood education or elsewhere," he says.

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Breaking news: sunspots & agriculture

Hey guys,

Guess what? According to NASA heliologist David Hathaway, we may be past the solar minimum, in which case global warming should start back up again soon.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/07nov_signsoflife.htm?list1109684

Good. Cold produces famine. This is good news for Russia, which has 480,000 square miles of arable land (out of 7.65 million worldwide, which means it's about 8% of the world total). As I recall, an acre of land was once sufficient to feed a family of four on potatoes back in Ireland ("it is crudely true that as long as a human being manages to get enough calories, it will somehow stagger to maturity and manage to reproduce itself"). At 640 acres to a square mile, Russia could feed 300 million families, or just over a billion people. Of course you sort of expect modern crop yields to be better than 17th century yields. Point being, global warming makes more land arable, which is good for Russia and Canada. Maybe not so good for Mexico.

And of course, we don't all eat potatoes any more. :)

http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2008/11/russia_break_out_the_sickles.html

Of course, sunspot activity could die back down again. Still, this is a good sign.

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Solar Power: a response

This source (http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/2008/Q4/mail543.html#Thursday) indicates that inefficiency of photovoltaics at a low angle is a minimal concern compared to subtended angle (which I knew about) and longevity (which I hadn't considered). Of course you know the problem with a shallow angle: a six-inch photovoltaic will only really be catching three inches of sunlight if it's at a 60 degree angle to the sun. I just picked up the impression from the article that photovoltaic inefficiency dropped even faster than that, but he thinks not and he sounds like he knows what he's talking about. I guess the chief concern would be durability, though: the fact that solar has to last 20-30 years to be economical is well-taken.

  

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/2008/Q4/mail543.html#Thursday

  

As with so many "breakthroughs" in photovoltaics, the new antireflective coating developed at RPI seems to be overhyped:

 

"Lin's discovery could antiquate these automated solar arrays, as his antireflective coating absorbs sunlight evenly and equally from all angles. This means that a stationary solar panel treated with the coating would absorb 96.21 percent of sunlight no matter the position of the sun in the sky. So along with significantly better absorption of sunlight, Lin's discovery could also enable a new generation of stationary, more cost-efficient solar arrays."

 

While an improved AR coating might boost overall photovoltaic efficiency by a few percent, the primary reason for heliostatic tracking is not to maximize absorption, but to maximize the subtended solid angle of the panel or array. That is, when the sun is at an angle away from normal incidence (away from perpendicular to the surface) the light incident on the panel is proportional to the cosine of this angle, so it is maximum when the angle is zero and falls to zero when the angle approaches +/- 90 degrees. Absorbing 96.21 percent of the sunlight is not terribly helpful if the panel, because of it's angle, is only receiving 30 percent of the light it would if optimally oriented.

 

Since I worked in the field 25 years ago, there have been hundreds of "breakthroughs" announced aimed at improving the efficiency of mass market photovoltaics. With very few exceptions, the added cost of these "breakthroughs" makes them not viable, or they are found to degrade over the 20-30 year service life required for payback of investment. The high volume solar panels being sold today are only a couple percent more efficient than what was being sold back then.

 

In fairness, some of the more exotic technologies are used in space power applications, where efficiency is king and low cost is not a high priority.

  

Doug Ely

  

-Max

  

--

"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

  

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Domain Specific Languages

Subject: Domain Specific Languages

Dr. Pournelle,

Here's an interesting video from PDC on a new tool that Microsoft built sort of by accident for defining and using textual domain-specific languages. Instead of writing raw XML or regular expressions, you can write context-free grammars and get free syntax highlighting and/or token checking (red squigglies like a spellchecker), plus structured data in the output. Basically, you can produce any structured data (like XML files, comma-separated values) from your own domain-specific language. It probably fits in the same niche as lex/yacc, gump, or the Boost Spirit parser. Some neat capabilities. Anyway, it's an interesting presentation if you can find 45 minutes.

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Solar power

I don't really understand this, but it's interesting: http://www.physorg.com/news144940463.html

 

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

McCain's concession speech

Classy speech.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/11/john-mccain.html

I've always believed that America offers opportunities to all who have the industry and will to seize it. Senator Obama believes that, too. But we both recognize that, though we have come a long way from the old injustices that once stained our nation's reputation and denied some Americans the full blessings of American citizenship, the memory of them still had the power to wound... Let there be no reason now for any American to fail to cherish their citizenship in this, the greatest nation on Earth....

I urge all Americans who supported me to join me in not just congratulating him, but offering our next president our good will and earnest effort to find ways to come together to find the necessary compromises to bridge our differences and help restore our prosperity, defend our security in a dangerous world, and leave our children and grandchildren a stronger, better country than we inherited. Whatever our differences, we are fellow Americans. And please believe me when I say no association has ever meant more to me than that....

It is natural. It's natural, tonight, to feel some disappointment. But tomorrow, we must move beyond it and work together to get our country moving again. We fought -- we fought as hard as we could. And though we feel short, the failure is mine, not yours....

I am also, of course, very thankful to Governor Sarah Palin, one of the best campaigners I've ever seen, and an impressive new voice in our party for reform and the principles that have always been our greatest strength...

This campaign was and will remain the great honor of my life, and my heart is filled with nothing but gratitude for the experience and to the American people for giving me a fair hearing before deciding that Senator Obama and my old friend Senator Joe Biden should have the honor of leading us for the next four years....

Today, I was a candidate for the highest office in the country I love so much. And tonight, I remain her servant. That is blessing enough for anyone, and I thank the people of Arizona for it.

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

May the God of heaven bless America!

I am glad that I'm privileged to live in a country where I can afford to lose an election without losing my freedom, my property, my family's future, and my life, and where the outgoing party feels the same and relinquishes power peacefully. This is how a republic works. (Saudis and Russians and Zimbabweans, take note!) It's a great country.

-Max

P.S. I presume Obama is not going to back Biden's pledge to prosecute members of the Bush administration. Biden was just flapping his mouth, because that is how you destroy a republic.

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Cool quotation

Attributed to Thomas Jefferson: "In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock."

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Global affairs alert: Zimbabwe (starvation approaches)

You guys may find this interesting. Sad, but interesting, and it's better to see these things coming. Who knows, maybe knowing will even let us do something to mitigate--or prevent it from happening again:
 
http://www.swradioafrica.com/pages/fiddling031108.htm

In the past two weeks the Zimbabwe economy has seen two really significant developments. The first is the total collapse of the Zimbabwe dollar and the second is the sharp deterioration in basic food supplies.

On Tuesday a local banker told me that the cost of money transactions in Zimbabwe dollars now exceeded the value of their transactions. Simply put that means if you are trading or shifting money in the form of the Zimbabwe domestic currency, you will be losing money even if you are charging interest and other charges related to the transactions that are involved.

So business here is now only possible if you work in a hard currency – the Rand or the US Dollar. This creates two other problems – how to obtain the hard currency in the first place and then, once you have the money, to use it without breaking the law which still prohibits such transactions. [snip]

On the food front the situation has deteriorated sharply in the past month. Humanitarian agencies have full warehouses but cannot get the food to the people who need it. The reasons are that the agencies cannot access cash for their operations – hard currency transactions are still illegal and the cash withdrawal limits and other restrictions imposed by the Reserve Bank are making local payments impossible – they cannot pay for hotels or staff salaries and cannot pay transporters to take the food to where it is needed. [snip]
 
So far all we can find evidence of are contracts for a total of 175 000 tonnes and even this meagre import programme seems to have spluttered to a halt. That leaves a total shortfall of 625 000 tonnes – possibly 800 000 tonnes because it is most unlikely that local production was 600 000 tonnes – most commentators say 425 000 tonnes.

This means that the shortfall is still probably 50 per cent of consumption and we still have 5 months to go to the end of the forecast supply period (April 2008 to March 2009).

-Max
 
P.S. I'm going great. I made a surprising discovery recently. Hope you're all well.
 
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Polling critique

Interesting, and knowledgeable, commentary. Election results aren't in yet, so I'm not posting this with any special foreknowledge of the real voter demographics. :) Basically he's asserting that polls in recent years have become cargo cult science.

OK, that's pretty harsh, and I want to emphasize that many polls are indeed trying to be professional and accurate, as much as the business will let them be. And even in the media whore groups, there are individuals who are honest and honorable (and probably miserable) and trying to put out a solid product. The problem comes from two directions. First, polling has become a business more than a profession, meaning that the guys directing the polls have become too willing to sell a story, even if that story is not exactly true. This becomes apparent when polls report shifts which are not caused by valid events, most easily seen in the phenomenon of convention 'bounces'. It's one thing to expect a party's base to become energized when the nominee is finally known and he comes out formally in a way that shows confidence and capability, but in recent years the pollsters have also decided this somehow affects the opposing party's support levels, a patently absurd notion on its face. I mean, what did Obama do at his convention that is supposed to have won over some Republicans, and just why should we believe that a number of Democrats, even briefly, supported McCain because he chose Sarah Palin for his running mate? That's manipulation of the data, folks, and cannot be explained any other way. It's been going one a while, that roller-coasting of the numbers, since polls in the media need to keep attention, and to do that they need to be exciting, even if it means being dishonest. They get away with it because they have a lot of time to worry about closing in on accuracy in the late weeks. Of course, some years they blow that, too. It needs to be said, repeated and repeated again, that polls blow the call by more than their published margin of error about 40% of the time.

The other problem is the Obama Machine. There are a lot of unprecedented conditions in this election, and I do not think the polling groups ever really sat down and thought about what the new conditions would be. Well, actually they did, but they did not test their conclusions, and as a result bought into some pretty tall tales from the Obama people. This year, the polls assumed the following things would be very different about this year:

1. Barack Obama being the first black to receive a major party nomination for President, black voters would be greatly motivated to register and vote, and this would swing decisively towards Obama. This led some polls to over-sample black voters, in the expectation that their influence would be more significant this year.

It's true and false. Black voters have indeed become more motivated this year, but as a demographic group blacks have always been enthusiastic, and have always overwhelmingly supported the democrat's nominee in presidential elections. As a result, it is mathematically impossible for black voters to significantly change the outcome of the election by supporting Obama. In a tight race, the increased participation could make the difference in some states, but nationally the effect is minimal and polling models should not be changed because of it.
 
Commentary continues. I found it interesting.
 
-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Open source hardware

Via Thomas P. M. Barnett:

http://www.wired.com/techbiz/startups/magazine/16-11/ff_openmanufacturing

What's really remarkable, though, is Arduino's business model: The team has created a company based on giving everything away. On its Web site, it posts all its trade secrets for anyone to take—all the schematics, design files, and software for the Arduino board. Download them and you can manufacture an Arduino yourself; there are no patents. You can send the plans off to a Chinese factory, mass-produce the circuit boards, and sell them yourself — pocketing the profit without paying Banzi a penny in royalties. He won't sue you. Actually, he's sort of hoping you'll do it.

That's because the Arduino board is a piece of open source hardware, free for anyone to use, modify, or sell. Banzi and his team have spent precious billable hours making the thing, and they sell it themselves for a small profit — while allowing anyone else to do the same. They're not alone in this experiment. In a loosely coordinated movement, dozens of hardware inventors around the world have begun to freely publish their specs. There are open source synthesizers, MP3 players, guitar amplifiers, and even high-end voice-over-IP phone routers. You can buy an open source mobile phone to talk on, and a chip company called VIA has just released an open source laptop: Anyone can take its design, fabricate it, and start selling the notebooks.

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Laban and the Law

From another conference:

Quoth Alan: Consider Nephi—he killed Laban, at God's command—and against the law.

Says Max: Are you certain that it was against the law? As I recall the Old Testament, it's basically one big long story about the Israelites not keeping the Law of Moses, even though they said claimed to. In fact that's why Jerusalem was destroyed. See for example Exodus 21:2 (compare Jeremiah 34:8-17), Deuteronomy 27:19 (see Jeremiah 7:6 and Psalm 94), Exodus 20:8 (see Jeremiah 17:21-24—see also Lev 26:33-35 and 2 Chronicles 36:21), and Deuteronomy 21:18-21.

This last one is peculiarly appropriate, both to Laban's situation in particular and to the whole House of Israel (as well as the lesson that Nephi, as future leader, needed to learn). I will therefore quote it:

  18 ¶ If a man have a stubborn and rebellious son, which will not obey the voice of his father, or the voice of his mother, and that, when they have chastened him, will not hearken unto them:

  19 Then shall his father and his mother lay hold on him, and bring him out unto the elders of his city, and unto the gate of his place;

  20 And they shall say unto the elders of his city, This our son is stubborn and rebellious, he will not obey our voice; he is a glutton, and a drunkard.

  21 And all the men of his city shall stone him with stones, that he die: so shalt thou put evil away from among you; and all Israel shall hear, and fear.

Laban was not only a drunkard (as well as were, apparently, the elders of the Jews with whom he had been partying that night, according to Zoram), he was also a robber and a murderer at heart. He was emblematic of the whole reason Jerusalem at that time needed to be destroyed. Read Ezekiel if you want more gory details about what was going on in Jerusalem at the time. So I therefore ask again: are you really sure that Nephi was breaking the law? Because it looks to me like he was executing a (legally-authorized) sentence.

-Max

P.S. Just in case I'm being unclear: the point is that putting family loyalty or affection ahead of righteousness brings iniquity and eventual destruction. You can't get to the point of treading on widows and orphans and murdering the poor if you're careful to cast out iniquity from among you (by stoning or exile, it doesn't matter, or by fasting and prayer if it's in yourself). "It is better that one man should perish than that a nation should dwindle and perish in unbelief."

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Economics and jobs

The Law of Unintended Consequences: I know you know this, but it's illustrative.

First, "Barack Obama and Joe Biden will require that employers provide seven paid sick days per year," states the Obama campaign's Web site. "I give three paid sick days," explained the business owner. His extra cost for this one new regulation would be $24,960 (4 extra days, 52 employees, at an average of $120 per day). "That's one of the women in the office," he said. "I can make up that cost by letting one of the office people go."

Second, Obama states that employers will be required to pay 100 percent of the cost of health insurance premiums for 100 percent of their employees or face a tax penalty. "I pay 75 percent of their coverage," explained the owner. "The family policy is about $11,000. For single guys, it's about $5,000." At an average annual cost of $7,000 per policy, his additional cost for 52 employees to cover the 25 percent of the premiums that he currently doesn't pay is $91,000. "That's the price of three installers," he said. "Just to stay even with where I am, I'd have to fire three more people or raise some prices and fire two."

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Post-election thoughts

Yes, it's not post-election yet, but it will be. This article mirrors my own thoughts, but better and more insightfully.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article5050705.ece

As America's government prepares to take a sudden and historic leftward turn, this might seem an odd moment to ponder what a conservative country it is.

...But the new rulers and their allies overseas would be well advised to tone down the rhetoric, play down expectations and rein in their wilder tendencies. The easiest mistake for the world to make would be to start believing the Left's own propaganda: that a vote for Barack Obama and for a Democrat in Congress on Tuesday is a vote to transform the country into a kind of social democratic paradise.

Of course none of this is to deny that Americans will be voting for change on Tuesday. After the past eight years who could possibly blame them? But I sense that the change they want is for a welcome period of competence and decency. They would rather have a government that works than a new paradigm for the organisation of American society, a radical redistribution of income and wealth or a dramatically expanded public sector. And they certainly won't be voting for a "can't we all just get along?" foreign policy that subjugates US national security to the negotiated outcomes of debates in the UN Security Council.

Odd as may sound, if Obama governs as a moderate, pro-growth President like Clinton, he will be a success (albeit without disgracing the office of the Presidency). If he spends his political capital appeasing the left, he'll be a one-term wonder like Carter. At this point, competence is the path to glory for Obama. Let's hope he's ambitious enough to take it.

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Perspective

As elections approach, I hear a lot of doom-and-gloom from paleoconservatives predicting that Obama's socialism will spell the eventual doom of the United States as a Republic. Perhaps it could (although I think it won't, although it would if things continued in the direction they're going). In the long run, though, I am reminded of John McCarthy's definition:

"An extreme optimist is a man who believes that humanity will probably survive even if it doesn't take his advice."

It's a healthy attitude politically, but the underlying reasoning is interesting: it's faith that good ideas will work and be adopted eventually, while bad ideas will fail and be discarded. Or as Joseph Smith said,

"If I esteem mankind to be in error, shall I bear down on them? No. I will lift them up, and in their own way too, if I cannot persuade them my way is better; and I will not seek to compel any man to believe as I do, only by the force of reasoning, for truth will cut its own way."

Socialism will fail, inevitably. Oh well. I am determined to be there (and solvent) at the end when it does.

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Public Education

Interesting quote from Brigham Young (Apr 6, 1877 conference address):

Many of you may have heard what certain journalists have had to say about Brigham Young being opposed to free schools. L am opposed to free education as much as I am opposed to taking property from one man and giving it to another who knows not how to take care of it.

But when you come to the fact, I will venture to say that I school ten children to every one that those do who complain so much of me. I now pay the school fee of a number of children who are either orphans or sons and daughters of poor people. But in aiding and blessing the poor I do not believe in allowing my charities to go through the hands of a set of robbers who pocket nine-tenths themselves, and give one-tenth to the poor. Therein is the difference between us: i am for the real act of doing and not saying. Would I encourage free schools by taxation? No! (SD 18:357)

Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Deflation

Gas is down to 2.98 in Redmond, from a high of 4.50 or so during the summer. I'm told that the prices were pumped by speculators, and with the financial crash they aren't speculating any more. And--prices in the vending machine at work have gone *down* by five cents for some items. First time I've ever seen that happen. Interesting, no?

 

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Thought for the day: Judge Not

Matthew 7:1, "Judge not, that ye be not judged," means, "You can't solve the Halting Problem," but moreso. Humans are more complicated than Turing Machines, and the end state is harder to predict.

-Max

P.S. Of course, someday you *will* be able to solve the Halting Problem. (Again, it's because humans are more complicated than Turing Machines, so the proof of intractability of the Halting Problem doesn't hold. That proof only shows that you can't solve it with a finite-state Turing Machine.)

-- "The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Getting gifted leaders into politics

The writer asks an interesting and important question, although he
doesn't have an answer for it:

http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/10/27/obama-mccain-politics-oped-cx_ghr_1027reynolds.html

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a
man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and
desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although
he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F.
Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my
brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Communism vs. The Law of Consecration

That's not exactly what this essay is about, but you'll probably see some application.

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/2008/Q4/view541.html#Distributism

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Climate change

[Cc'ed T.]

J.,

More data, from a source who obviously does have an opinion but is much more familiar than I am with the relevant scientific literature.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/10/an_open_letter_from_the_viscou_1.html

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Security Theatre

Bruce Schneier and company penetrate TSA security to show that the TSA is a waste of tax dollars.

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200811/airport-security

Schneier has his biases (he tends to assume a highly-competent enemy when the evidence from Michael Sheehan is that Al Qaeda is not such) but I'm inclined to agree. It's a lot of money and hassle spent for little return except a sense of (illusory) security. We would probably be better off without it.

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

China

http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2008/10/a_huge_but_necessary_step_long.html

Read the comment, follow the link. Interesting, no?

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a
man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and
desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although
he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F.
Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my
brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Poem

Though much is taken, much abides. And though
We are not now that strength which in the old days
Moved Earth and Heaven, that which we are, we are;

—Alfred Lord Tennyson, "Ulysses"

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a
man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and
desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although
he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F.
Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my
brethren, ye have done it unto me."

ACORN

If this CNN story can be believed, 2100 of the first 2100 voters ACORN registered in Lake County, Indiana were fraudulent. Impressive, no? Sources tell me this occurs because ACORN pays their personnel per voter registered.

 

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/275523.php

 

-Max

 

--

"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

 

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Monkey Business & the Market

I got this from Chaos Manor (www.jerrypournelle.com). It's a hoot.

Monkey Business 

Once upon a time, in a place overrun with monkeys, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each. 

The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest, and started catching them. 

The man bought thousands at $10 and as supply started to diminish, they became harder to catch, so the villagers stopped their effort. 

The man then announced that he would now pay $20 for each one. 

This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again. 

But soon the supply diminished even further and they were ever harder to catch, so people started going back to their farms and forgot about monkey catching. 

The man increased his price to $25 each and the supply of monkeys became so sparse that it was an effort to even see a monkey, much less catch one. 

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys for $50! 

However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on his behalf. 

While the man was away the assistant told the villagers, "Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has bought. I will sell them to you at $35 each and when the man returns from the city, you can sell them to him for $50 each." 

The villagers rounded up all their savings and bought all the monkeys. 

They never saw the man nor his assistant again, and once again there were monkeys everywhere. 

Now you have a better understanding of how the stock market works. 

Tracy Walters

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Radioactive Taiwan

D.,

Here's a link to the study. I don't know whether anyone has followed up on it.

-M.

===============================

http://www.jpands.org/vol9no1/chen.pdf

ABSTRACT
An extraordinary incident occurred 20 years ago in Taiwan. Recycled steel, accidentally contaminated with cobalt-60 (half-life: 5.3 y), was formed into construction steel for more than 180 buildings, which 10,000 persons occupied for 9 to 20 years. They unknowingly received radiation doses that averaged 0.4 Sv—a "collective dose" of 4,000 person-Sv. Based on the observed seven cancer deaths, the cancer mortality rate for this population was assessed to be 3.5 per 100,000 person-years. Three children were born with congenital heart malformations, indicating a prevalence rate of 1.5 cases per 1,000 children under age 19. The average spontaneous cancer death rate in the general population of Taiwan over these 20 years is 116 persons per 100,000 person-years. Based upon partial official statistics and hospital experience, the prevalence rate of congenital
malformation is 23 cases per 1,000 children. Assuming the age and income distributions of these persons are the same as for the general population, it appears that significant beneficial health effects may be associated with this chronic radiation exposure. The findings of this study are such a departure from expectations, based on International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) criteria, that we believe that they ought to be carefully reviewed by other, independent organizations and that population data not available to the authors be provided, so that a fully qualified, epidemiologically valid analysis can be made. Many of the confounding factors that limit other studies used to date, such as those of the A-bomb survivors, the Mayak workers, and the Chernobyl evacuees, are not present in this population exposure. It should be one of the most important events on which to base radiation-protection standards. The data on reduced cancer mortality and congenital malformations are compatible with the phenomenon of radiation hormesis, an adaptive response of biological organisms to low levels of radiation stress or damage–-a modest overcompensation to a disruption-–resulting in improved fitness. Recent assessments of more than a century of data have led to the formulation of a wellfounded scientific model of this phenomenon. The experience of these 10,000 persons suggests that longterm exposure to radiation, at a dose rate of the order of 50 mSv (5 rem) per year, greatly reduces cancer mortality, which is a major cause of death in North America. Medical scientists and organizations may wish to seriously assess this and other current evidence in deciding whether chronic radiation could be an effective agent for enhancing defenses against cancer.

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a
man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and
desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although
he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F.
Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my
brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Perspective: Dow Jones history

The Dow Jones recently dropped below 9000. People are scared. Here's a history:

http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/xlspages/DJIA_Hist_Perf.xls

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
 
"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Two soldiers and an A-bomb

Keywords: army experiment, nth country, nuclear fission, militarily significant yield

It turns out that, except for getting the fissiles, making a nuclear bomb is neither as easy nor quite as difficult as one might have wished. A fascinating story.
 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2003/jun/24/usa.science

They would be working in a murky limbo between the world of military secrets and the public domain. They would have an office at Livermore, but no access to its warrens of restricted offices and corridors; they would be banned from consulting classified research but, on the other hand, anything they produced - diagrams in sketchbooks, notes on the backs of envelopes - would be automatically top secret. And since the bomb that they were designing wouldn't, of course, actually be built and detonated, they would have to follow an arcane, precisely choreographed ritual for having their work tested as they went along. They were to explain at length, on paper, what part of their developing design they wanted to test, and they would pass it, through an assigned lab worker, into Livermore's restricted world. Days later, the results would come back - though whether as the result of real tests or hypothetical calculations, they would never know.

"The goal of the participants should be to design an explosive with a militarily significant yield," read the "operating rules", unearthed by the nuclear historian Dan Stober in a recent study of the project published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Sciences. "A working context for the experiment might be that the participants have been asked to design a nuclear explosive which, if built in small numbers, would give a small nation a significant effect on their foreign relations."
 
-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me."

Miss Manners

T. & J.,

Miss Manners remains, as always, a genius. Quote:

Dear Miss Manners:

What's your beef with a cash bar at wedding receptions? Weddings are incredibly expensive, and a couple starting out shouldn't have to go in the hole for thousands of dollars just to throw a reception where Miss Manners and a bunch of other deadbeats can have unlimited liquor. I thought you were a classy broad!

If we should encounter each other at a wedding reception, then your first drink will be on me, and you can hustle the rest yourself! I DARE YOU TO PRINT THIS!

Suppose you go first and explain why anyone would want to stage a thousands-of-dollars event for people whom they think of as deadbeats, and why other people would want to attend the wedding of those who thought that of them. This will give Miss Manners a moment to think of a tactful way of saying that she does not care to drink with you. 

End quote. I am continually impressed with how deftly she is able to deal with potentially-awkward situations. This time she dealt with one on her own behalf.

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.

"Crisis" and Congress

Wall Street is panicking over stock price losses connected to the sub-prime mess. Congress has been asked by Bush's administration to rush a $700 billion bailout plan into action to help. (For comparison, annual federal spending is about $3 trillion. More to the point, income taxes provide only $1.2 trillion a year. Take whatever you pay in income tax in a year and add another 50%. That's what this bailout would cost you if it went bad.)

 

Newt Gingrich says, essentially, "Let's not be so hasty to throw money at the problem. What is the real problem and what is the real solution?" It is a cogent article IMHO.

 

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGE5MmE0YmRiODA3YTRiNzFlN2FmNDU5N2I0ZDc3YTE=

 

Any Republican who doesn't stand up to this bill in favor of real solutions deserves to be fired.

 

-Max

 

--

"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

 

Be pretty if you are,

Be witty if you can,

But be cheerful if it kills you.

Ebooks

Wow! Demo:

 

http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid980795693?bctid=1778578839

 

Article.

 

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13512_3-10038979-23.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.

McCain's dishonest ad?

It turns out that the McCain ad attacking Obama's support for sex-ed for kindergartners is actually basically true. The bill (which didn't pass, IIRC) actually did mandate teaching kindergartners about HIV and pregnancy prevention.
 
http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/fulltext.asp?DocName=&SessionId=3&GA=93&DocTypeId=SB&DocNum=99&GAID=3&LegID=734&SpecSess=&Session
 
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NzI3ZDUzOTE0ZThlMTU3MTY0MDI4ZTY0MTZhY2I2MGY=
 
-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.

Extinct or evolving?

A tiny frog species thought by many experts to be extinct has been rediscovered alive and well in a remote area of Australia's tropical north, researchers said Thursday. The 1.5 inch-long Armoured Mistfrog had not been seen since 1991, and many experts assumed it had been wiped out by a devastating fungus that struck northern Queensland state. [snip]

Most of the Armoured Mistfrogs that Alford's group has found are infected with the fungus, but the disease does not appear to be making them sick, he said.

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.

The Bridge To Nowhere (Sarah Palin)

On "Thanks, but no thanks":

http://proteinwisdom.com/?p=13236

Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin has been criticized for lying in connection with terminating Alaska’s “Bridge to Nowhere” project. This charge, however, reflects widespread misunderstanding as to the nature of the infrastructure budgeting process.

[snip] Palin could have deferred the project to future years, possibly changing the funding allocation. In the end, she chose the radical option of removing the project from the capital budget, precluding any future funding allocations or construction. Her claim to have “stopped the bridge” is entirely truthful.

[snip] Palin has offered a bit of misleading rhetoric, however, in discussing the bridge episode. She has stated that terminating the project amounted to telling Congress “thanks, but no thanks.” This suggests that Congress was attempting to force the project on Alaska, when in fact it had given the state discretion. Her decision should instead be viewed as conveying the message “thanks, but no thanks” to Alaska’s Republican Congressional delegation.

My takeaway: I don't understand government.

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.

Gun control

When old ladies need guns:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008172211_pitbulls11m.html

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.

Sarah Palin

More on Palin and earmarks: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122100927525717663.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

 

-Max

 

--

"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

 

Be pretty if you are,

Be witty if you can,

But be cheerful if it kills you.

Sarah Palin

Some thoughts on Sarah Palin that echo my own pretty well: http://selenianboondocks.blogspot.com/2008/09/my-thoughts-on-sarah-palin.html

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.

George W. Bush

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/08/AR2008090802839.html?hpid=topnews

 
Here's an interesting report. Back in September 2007, Petraeus was struggling with an unsupportive chain of command (Fallon and company). Jack Keane makes a back-channel report to the vice-president and then to the president.

Keane repeated what he had just told Cheney: The JCS and Adm. William J. Fallon, Petraeus's boss at Central Command, were insisting on studies and reports to justify even the smallest request for more resources for Iraq. Their persistent pressure, pushing Petraeus for a faster drawdown, was taking its toll.

"There is very little preparation," Keane said, "for somebody who grows up in a military culture to have an unsupportive chain of command above you and still be succeeding. You normally get fired." The result, he said, is that Petraeus "starts to look for ways to get rid of this pressure, which means some kind of accommodation."

Bush said he wanted Keane to deliver a personal message to Petraeus from his commander-in-chief. After Bush laid out his thoughts, Keane went to the large West Wing lobby, sat among the couches and chairs and wrote out the president's words....

"I respect the chain of command. I know that the Joint Chiefs and the Pentagon have some concerns. One is about the Army and Marine Corps and the impact of the war on them. And the second is about other contingencies and the lack of strategic response to those contingencies.

"I want Dave to know that I want him to win. That's the mission. He will have as much force as he needs for as long as he needs it.

"When he feels he wants to make further reductions, he should only make those reductions based on the conditions in Iraq that he believes justify those reductions. These two concerns that we are discussing back here in Washington -- about contingency operations and the needs of the Army and the Marine Corps -- they are not your concerns. They are my concerns.

"I do not want to change the strategy until the strategy has succeeded. I waited over three years for a successful strategy. And I'm not giving up on it prematurely. I am not reducing further unless you are convinced that we should reduce further."

I respect that. As Commander In Chief, Bush did the right thing here.

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.

Technology: Distilling without boiling

Solving the looming freshwater shortage problem requires a way of turning saltwater into freshwater efficiently: http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/multimedia/2008/09/gallery_caltech_nano_still

I can't find any numbers on how much more efficient it is, so I don't know if this is a big deal or not. It's just interesting. I actually suspect that in the long run distillation will be more limited by capital costs more than energy costs (you can always build more nuclear power plants) so this probably won't even get used on an industrial scale, but maybe I'm wrong.

Also, there's this note on slide 12:

Professor Boyd, the lead researcher on the project, reveals that this process was largely discovered by accident. "We had this problem with [an] air bubble, so we started hitting it with a laser. Instead of getting rid of it, we saw that we were actually causing the distillation process to occur, which was completely unexpected," Boyd explains.

This is an application of the "Eureka" vs. "That's funny" process in science.

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.

"Natural" Eastern U.S. Terrain

But now, Robert Walter and Dorothy Merritts of Franklin and Marshall College in Pennsylvania say those studies got it wrong, and the meandering streams are actually the result of early forms of land management imposed by the European settlers of the 17th century. The New World, they say, was a wetland.

The new study suggests that rather than rivers being confined to single, winding channels before 20th century industrialisation, they were collections of many small channels spreading across broad wetlands before European settlers dammed them in.

This may be relevant to understanding the Book of Mormon. I have a growing suspicion that the general consensus among lay members and FARMS researchers that the Book of Mormon story took place in Central America is wrong. I have this suspicion for a number of reasons--the political history of the United States, the position of the First Presidency on the location of the hill Cumorah, the methodology of the FARMS researchers, the fact that no one seems to question the assumption that in the geographical description in Alma 22, "sea east" and "sea west" actually mean "ocean east" and "ocean west" and that "land" means "continent"--but it's certainly interesting to note that the Eastern U.S. before the 17th century was a land of "many waters", per Mosiah 8:8 and Mormon 6:4.

-Max

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.

McCain's speech

I'm starting to really like Jay Cost. Excellent analysis.

 

-M.

 

--

"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

 

Be pretty if you are,

Be witty if you can,

But be cheerful if it kills you.

Biden says Obama may press charges against Bush

Subject: Biden says Obama may press charges against Bush

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/03/uselections2008.joebiden

"If there has been a basis upon which you can pursue someone for a criminal violation, they will be pursued," Biden said during a campaign event in Deerfield Beach, Florida, according to ABC.

"[N]ot out of vengeance, not out of retribution," he added, "out of the need to preserve the notion that no one, no attorney general, no president -- no one is above the law." End quote.

Sounds sensible in theory (who isn't in favor of the rule of law?), likely to be a horribly messy mistake in practice.

-Max

Putin interview

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/29/putin.transcript/

 

Interesting stuff. Two points jump out at me:

 

1.) He's lying about the chronology. We know this thanks to Michael Totten's reporting from Georgia, which I mentioned a few days ago. Not surprising, because Saakashvili's bungling misinformation attempt has everyone (including the pro-Georgian camp) convinced that there were no Russian jets bombing Georgian forces until after the war officially started on August 7.

 

2.) He doesn't like McCain. No big surprise there, but he throws this bit in: "If my suppositions are confirmed, then there are grounds to suspect that some people in the United States created this conflict deliberately in order to aggravate the situation and create a competitive advantage for one of the candidates for the U.S. presidency. And if that is the case, this is nothing but the use of the called administrative resource in domestic politics, in the worst possible way, one that leads to bloodshed." Given #1, this is more likely a lie than a real paranoid suspicion. Does Putin want to work with Obama, or work Obama over?

 

-Max

[P.S. to the blog: the Michael Totten material I alluded to above is here. -M.]

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.

Regrowing fingers

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/03/22/sunday/main3960219.shtml

 

Three years ago, Lee Spievack sliced off the tip of his finger in the propeller of a hobby shop airplane. What happened next, Andrews reports, propelled him into the future of medicine. Spievack's brother, Alan, a medical research scientist, sent him a special powder and told him to sprinkle it on the wound. "I powdered it on until it was covered," Spievack recalled.

To his astonishment, every bit of his fingertip grew back.

 

"Your finger grew back," Andrews asked Spievack, "flesh, blood, vessels and nail?"

"Four weeks," he answered.

[snip] That powder is a substance made from pig bladders called extracellular matrix. It is a mix of protein and connective tissue surgeons often use to repair tendons and it holds some of the secrets behind the emerging new science of regenerative medicine.

--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)

Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.