Thursday, October 21, 2021

Minimal APIs for .NET

For future reference: https://gist.github.com/davidfowl/ff1addd02d239d2d26f4648a06158727

Looks like simple application building will be much easier in .NET 6.0.

-Max

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Epistemology of Dreams

I believe I've just made a significant discovery about dreams.

I had a dream last night with many interesting features, besides the fact that it was in first person and involved a trip back to the Philippines and meeting a bunch of orphaned children and delagas. One interesting feature was that it explicitly featured in-dream deja vu, to the point where I not only asked the girl if we'd had this conversation before but speculated out loud about whether it was just deja vu. (From a waking perspective, it clearly was indeed deja vu.) Even more interesting, though, is my attempts to explain to some of the kids that I do in fact speak Cebuano as well as English, because they tell me something about how well my mind functions while asleep.

Specifically, in the dream, I knew that "kahibalo ka og Cebuano" wasn't quite right, that kahibalo meant "knowledge" but that that was kind of an Ilonggo way to say things. So I tried again, inside my head (another interesting feature of this dream is that it featured an inner monologue, separate from the dreamworld "plot"--I find this even rarer for me than first-person dreaming). I'm about 80% sure that what I came up with involved the word "pungutana" for "speak," something like "makahibalo ko pungutana og Cebuano."

That's interesting because my waking mind immediately recognizes that pungutana means "question" and not "knowledge" or "speak", which means that not only did my dream involve my dream-self creating a memory retrieval task for my brain, but that when my brain got it wrong, my dream-self failed to reject the failure and instead incorporated it into the dream as if it were accurate.

I think viewing dreams as a state of non-rejection and radical openness/gullibility explains a lot about dreams, or at least my dreams.

Incidentally, it did take my waking self more than a few seconds to remember that "makasulti ko'g Cebuano" is the Cebuano way to say it, and "kabolo ko Cebuano" is the Ilonggo way to say it. They use different verbs and different grammatical shortcuts.

-Max

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Friday, October 1, 2021

RE: "Maricopa County audit flags 57k+ ballot issues in a state Biden won by fewer than 11k votes"

RE: https://sharylattkisson.com/2021/09/read-maricopa-county-audit-flags-57k-ballot-issues-in-a-state-biden-won-by-fewer-than-11k-votes

Maricopa County audit flags 57k+ ballot issues in a state Biden won by fewer than 11k votes

It's unclear why most media reports have been declaring, contrary to evidence, that the audit somehow confirmed that Biden won the Arizona race fair and square. (You can read the audit at the link below and draw your own conclusions.) Though a hand recount of ballots was fairly close to the original count, that did not address the anomalies found, nor did it rule out invalid votes and fraud.

In addition to the problems flagged, auditors said it was impossible to conduct a complete audit because county officials failed to cooperate on some important matters. And some evidence was reportedly removed or destroyed prior to a subpoena.

Among significant problems uncovered were tens of thousands of people who voted from a prior address, which would technically invalidate the votes if one were to enforce election law. Likewise with 10,342 voters who potentially voted in more than one county.

In one particularly difficult-to-square anomaly, more than 9,000 more ballots were returned by voter than were sent out. In more than 3,000 instances, the official results do "not match who voted."

Remember all those stories around election time of people in Maricopa county who showed up to vote and were told they had already voted absentee (i.e. someone stole their vote)? I'm not sure but I think this might be an official statistic on roughly how many times that happened.

Obviously in a democracy we can't permit this to happen again, going forward. It undermines trust in the election result, which is bad for both the winner of the election and for the country. IWe need better security for mail-in votes, or we need to eliminate mail-in voting.

This is not a partisan issue. Democrats and Republicans should both be backing election security.

-Max

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Thursday, August 26, 2021

Optimizing armies

The military often lies to itself and to civilian oversight (the President, Congress, the rest of us) about how well training of our own and allied troops is going and how ready they are for a fight. This has consequences.

From https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-26/why-america-cant-build-allied-armies

In Afghanistan and advisory missions across the globe, the United States relies on strategies to motivate its partners that do not work. The U.S. military prioritizes building relationships with foreign militaries over applying any sort of conditionality to its security assistance, and civilian officials in Washington defer to its approach. The United States then issues rosy reports to the American people about the progress being made by the local partner, which continue until the fateful day when the force is asked to operate on its own. And then Saigon. Mosul. And now Kabul.

...Why does the U.S. military persist with a strategy of advising that doesn't work? Like most large bureaucracies, it tends to institutionalize ways of doing business that serve its interests—in its case, autonomy, prestige, and access to resources. The military establishes standard operating procedures that advance its bureaucratic interests, and these SOPs tend to stick unless civilian leaders push hard for change.

Rapport-based persuasion may do little to incentivize local leaders to build better militaries, but it serves the U.S. military's bureaucratic interests. The gentle approach maintains comity with local partners and bolsters a narrative of cooperative partnership that legitimizes the entire advisory effort. In contrast, threatening local leaders with reductions or cessations of support could disrupt the U.S. military's own procedures and relationships. A more assertive approach to advising might also spark ugly conflagrations that call Washington's attention to the advisory effort, increasing the risk of civilian meddling.

If I were emperor of the U.S. military (so to speak), I suspect I could get more truthful readiness reports out of the military by using prediction markets to double-check official readiness reports? Let's say I allow soldiers currently in Afghanistan to invest up to $500 a year on either side of the proposition: "If the U.S. leaves Afghanistan within the next five years, the Taliban will take over at least 50% of the country." If the U.S. leaves Afghanistan during that time, and if the Taliban doesn't take over, anyone who invested in "No" gets $10 for every $1 they put in. If they do take over, anyone who invested in "No" gets $10 for every $1. If the U.S. doesn't leave the country during that time, everyone just gets their money back, with 8% interest.

If we had done this in Afghanistan, we would still have seen rosy official reports, but we would also have seen troops voting en masse with their wallets that the Afghan military would not and could not hold, and we might have been able to leverage that against both the military bureaucracy and the Afghan government: do whatever it takes to persuade the troops that you're ready to actually win a war, or you're fired.

Accurate feedback is a necessary first step on the road to optimization, and this might be one way to get accurate feedback.

-Max

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Thursday, July 15, 2021

On prayer and miracles

[Question and answer about religion from another context]

Q [Person A]: One more observation - or question.  If you don't think He does physical kinds of miracles (at least very often), does that view jive with how people in the scriptures experienced miracles?  If it is discordant with Book of Mormon or Bible (or other standard works) experience, why would that be?  Has the Church changed, has God changed, or have people just changed how they view God from when the Church was "restored" and if so, does that really leave room for a restoration of what is really no longer the case?  Hence, revisionism more than restoration.

A [Max]: I'm not sure I agree [that he doesn't do physical kinds of miracles]. What I'm saying is that His inclination to do physical kinds of miracles for me has apparently decreased as I've grown in spiritual maturity, which is why childhood is relevant. When I was very young, the answer to "I lost something" was typically "Here's where to find it." At a certain point I started getting the feeling the answer from here on out was increasingly going to be, "Here's how to be patient and unstressed while it's lost," and eventually "Here's how to go about replacing the lost things without suffering unduly from stress during the process." It doesn't mean I have ceased to lose things, or even ceased to lose things and then find them again, but the Spirit says to me that it's not (typically, for most things) even appropriate any more to pray to for a "physical miracle" in that sense because I've moved beyond them.

This doesn't mean other people couldn't experience physical miracles, which is one reason it's important for me to be very open-minded about how other people experience divine interventions, since we're all at different points in our progressions. But most of my divine experiences in the past few decades are more spiritually-oriented (read: concerned with conveying intelligence and making me a better, kinder, stronger person) since I don't really have many physical needs now. When I've needed physical interventions, such as after my injury in the Army, I knew I would get them if I asked for them and I did. If you classify finances as "physical" I also feel distinctly blessed in that regard as a result of paying tithing--not just that I have money, but the confidence that comes from knowing the Lord appreciates me taking my duty to him seriously and that if I ever needed more He would give it to me, because that's the kind of Man He is. (I'm sure you can relate though to the feeling of already having more money than you ever intended to have, and not really having anything in particular that you need to spend it on. You and I don't share much in common but I recognize that we (and also Gale) share an inclination to use our financial surplus for the benefit of others, such as generously tipping working-class taxi drivers and waiters at restaurants and strangers in need.)

But anyway, the premise that "you don't think He does physical kinds of miracles" is incorrect.

-Max

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Friday, June 25, 2021

Election Integrity and Audit Trails

[From a comment thread elsewhere. I think this is a good summary of the issues involved in proving to people that the winner of an election actually did win. -Max]

Person #1: Liberal here who never voted for Trump. Biden may have been a bland centrist at one point; today he is compromised both physically and ethically. Democrats are lined up in support of HR1, guaranteed to bring one-party rule to the USA for a hundred years. They're lined up in favor of discrimination against Jews, whites, anyone who fails to demonstrate sufficient zeal in the party's march toward authoritarianism. The party as a whole supports censorship and denial of due process based on tribal characteristics.

That defines a different form of government from the liberal Western democracies arising from the Enlightenment. I was a liberal Democrat from 1960 to 2009 (yes. I'm older than dirt). I have no party today.

Person #2: You've self-identified elsewhere in these threads as having once worked with an assortment of spooks, military guys, government officials, etc., in some capacity. If this is true, I would like to think from your experiences you come to TK with a unique perspective not shared by most here. That's a pretty dire forecast above. And it's rather broad in its generalizations. Anything that stands out in your mind that might bring all this to fruition? And why, for instance, you single out the democrats for their authoritarianism?

Person #1: We must restore the citizenry's trust in our elections. In two consecutive elections we've had half of the country believe the other half stole the election; no democracy can survive the loss of faith of its electorate. The key is the audit trail. That is the ability to trace the ballot from printing through conveying to the voter and the voter casting the ballot to the ballot's being counted and results certified. Anything that breaks the audit trail introduces the opportunity for mischief.

A broken audit trail isn't proof of anything; an intact audit trail, though is strong evidence of absence of fraud. Anything that weakens the audit trail can allow for the introduction of fraud. We need a front to back examination of the most recent two presidential elections, not to overturn them, but to identify where fraud might enter the processes. We then can address fixing vulnerabilities.

The vote-casting process begins with providing the voter access to one ballot. Is the person standing in front of me the one who is registered to vote? In most case we verify identity with government-issued identification cards.

We have used absentee ballots for years. The process was to provide identification and request an absentee ballot from officials. The absentee ballot is then provided to the voter or sent to her/him through the mail. That is a "pull" system. There is an audit trail starting with the request for the absentee ballot and completed with the receipt of the ballot at election headquarters, where the voter's signature is compared to the signature on an outer envelope. The outer envelope is separated from its contents to maintain secrecy of the ballot. The ballot itself is extracted from the inner envelope and put into the "cast" pile from which it will be counted and the vote added to the totals for all issues and elections on the ballot. All of this takes place in full view of representatives from all parties involved in the election.

If election officials mail ballots to the last known address of a voter, there is no way to establish an audit trail. That is a push system. A push system is guaranteed to send some ballots to the wrong address. About 20% of the U.S. population moves every year. If the home address was verified a year ago, there is a 20% chance that the ballot winds up in the wrong hands. If it has been two years, the usual interval between U.S. elections, the chance is 35% that it went to the wrong person. Many voters only vote during presidential elections every four years. During that time, a majority of voters will have moved.

The ballot can be returned via US mail, in person, or by a third party. The third party method is known as ballot harvesting. A single harvester may collect one hundred to five hundred ballots. If a ballot has been mailed out to the voter's last known address - the push system - then a ballot harvester picks it up for delivery to the election counting authorities, and the voter's signature on the outer ballot is not compared to her/his signature on the voter rolls, the audit trail has been compromised three times.

After arrival at ballot counting headquarters, everything is supposed to be witnessed by two or more people. Poll watchers are supposed to have uninterrupted access to all activities. If they do not, there is an opportunity for fraud to enter the process. I do not claim that there was any fraud in either the 2016 or 2020 election. My objective is to get a complete audit to reassure the electorate that our elections are not rigged.

The most secure method of voting is via paper ballot. When machines are used they can be manipulated or changed. One way that machines can be manipulated is via the internet. That is why there is no admitted internet connection to the machines. That is why machines are subject to subpoena and are rarely wiped clean until all possible subpoenas have been accounted for.

Federal law requires that voter rolls be reviewed every so often, perhaps every two or four years. That way on election day there should be no county in the country that has more registered voters than adults eligible to vote.

Of all that: HR1 prohibits requiring identification to vote, it prohibits comparing signatures for absentee ballots, it requires mass mailing of blank ballots to last known address for all voters, with the push system being required for use. It authorizes ballot harvesting for all jurisdictions in the country.

The election machines and software used in Fulton County, GA, reported results through a server in Europe, and were wiped clean while under subpoena. Broward County, FL, was one of 39 counties in the US that recorded more 2020 votes than adults; the county's rolls have not been purged of inactive or dead voters in years, accounting for four orders of magnitude greater number of centenarians living in the county than global average would predict. The chief of elections in the county routinely opened absentee and mail-out ballots with no one else present, and swore that the extraordinary number of people aged over 100 voted in ever election. She was finally removed. Practices such as requiring voter ID, requiring all counties to provide drop-off locations for ballots and purging voter rolls in accordance with federal law are all described by our President as "Jim Crow 2.0"

Why do I call out Democrats? I've never been a Republican; I was a Democrat until I realized the party had adopted pursuit of power rather than liberalism as its core. Have you heard a former smoker beat up on current smokers? I'm a former Democrat. Same thing.
 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Saturday, May 15, 2021

Incident

Something happened recently that hasn't happened to me in over thirty-six years.

Recently, I was driving on a narrow country road when my headlights showed in front of me a couple of people crawling along the road, as if looking for a contact lens. The one on the right's leg was outstretched to my right, and I swerved to miss them both. I didn't feel anything but when I glanced back in my rearview mirror the one with the outstretched leg seemed to be in pain, and the foot didn't look right. I didn't want to hurt anyone, but somehow I had. I was shocked and dismayed as I drove on, and after a little while it came to me that I'd just participated in a hit-and-run driving accident. I had to turn around and go back.

After another moment of hesitation I did--I turned the car around and went looking for my accidental victims. At this point it was starting to get lighter, and when I saw movement along the side of the road (near a baseball field as it happened) I stopped the car and got out, calling. The pedestrian called me back, greeting me by name, "Max!" I was surprised to see someone from my ward, and her daughter, apparently taking some kind morning jog or something. I asked if they had seen anyone with a hurt foot or leg, and they said no. I asked them to call me on their cell phones if they did, and I was about to get back in my car when another passer-by engaged me briefly in conversation (I forget exactly what), and then... I looked up in time to see the big dumpster behind which I had parked my car rammed by a huge semi truck driven by an annoyed driver, who apparently considered the dumpster to blocking the road. After ramming it, he then *shoved* the dumpster even further to the right, pushing it entirely off the road's shoulder. I hastened to get in my car so I could drive it off before the truck took offense to my car's positioning too (and I was definitely on the shoulder and not the road--I looked!) and then drove onward.

Around this time I became aware that something wasn't right. As I looked around the car, everything looked kosher for the most part--I could see fine in all directions, and I could move, but... something about the car's instrument panel was off. It was full of red and green little lights, more like an airplane than a car... and are cars supposed to *have* instrument panels??? At this point the unusual thing happened: I became aware that all the strangeness around me meant that I was actually in a dream. (Normally it never occurs to me until after I wake up.) As I resumed driving, I considered taking control of the dream and using it to manifest some old friends whom I love seeing, but for reason I didn't, and I drove onward looking for my erstwhile hit-and-run victims.

The last time I realized I was in a dream I was three to five years old, and I used the knowledge to escape from a cartoon snake that curled up to bounce itself like a spring from a pirate ship onto shore to chase me. (I pried my own real-world eyes open with my real-world fingers to get out of the dream.) This time, nothing quite so dramatic happened. I did become aware that I had a real-world body lying in bed, separate from my dream-world body whose hands were on the steering wheel, but there was nothing nightmarish to escape so I didn't.

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Sunday, February 28, 2021

Journal

Dear J.,

I'm going to make a point about spirituality by analogy with the game of Go.

Go is a simple but complex game where you take turns placing black or white stones on a board while avoiding capture by the other player's stones, and trying at the end of the game to have the most area surrounded or "controlled" by your stones. I've been learning to play it and I am quite bad at it, but one thing that helps me to get better is that when you play on online-go.com, there is so-called AI Analysis that runs after a game and tells you what your biggest mistakes were during the game and what you could have done instead. Not all mistakes are equal--the biggest mistakes are the ones that took you from "probably going to win this game" to "probably going to lose this game" all in one bad move, and learning to recognize what winning and losing look like is part of learning to play the game well. For example, in this screenshot I played my black stone at B4 (labelled "-92" because it turned a 92% chance of winning into a 100% chance of losing), but if I'd played at H4 instead (marked "0") I would have kept that 92% chance of winning. You can see from the "Win %" graph that I had a very brief opportunity there to turn the game around after white's mistake at B3, and I blew it because I didn't even realize I had it. 



Even though you can never play perfectly, you can survive making little mistakes because your opponent makes mistakes too, and the AI will help you identify those as well, afterwards, and show you how to exploit them next time.

Sometimes in order to practice, I'll start a game, play through the beginning (even the places where I feel like I don't know where I'm doing) until I'm definitely losing, and then resign and go look at the AI suggestions to see what opportunities I missed: what was the crucial point where I lost the game, and what should I have done instead?

I was pondering today about Q&As, and what questions I would ask Heavenly Father if I got a face-to-face Q&A with him, and the first two questions that came to mind were "How are you doing?" and "How am I doing?". And the thought occurred to me that this was exactly the same kind of question as AI Analysis for Go--asking an expert what was the biggest mistake I made today, so I can learn to recognize it and not do it again! And even though Heavenly Father isn't here in person right now, I think that this is the kind of question (unlike "What are you working on right now?") that can be answered through the Holy Ghost. I can get advice on how to be a better and stronger person, from someone who is a supreme expert on how to live a good life. I will still make mistakes, but the Enemy makes mistakes too, so if I can avoid the biggest mistakes I will have a good day. And when I lose, I can get advice on why I lost, and how to avoid it next time, and have a better day and be a better person.

I am so grateful for repentance and for the gift of the Holy Ghost.

Max

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.