"We come fully skilled," he said. "We are good carpenters. We are good bricklayers. It's different than South Africans because South Africans need practice first."
A lesson for Americans, too. It's tempting to blame immigration and outsourcing for job loss, but it's also a fallacy. Given that the children in U.S. schools will be competing against 7 billion others, how do we ensure that as many of them as possible will be competitive? I have friends who disagree, but I think the chief goal of public education should be education and not socialization. If that means expelling an undisciplined 10% of the students so teachers can maintain discipline, and firing 10% of the teachers who don't perform... it will result in a lot of angst, but I don't think the other 90% will get a quality education if you don't do it and in the long run that's going to hurt them a lot more than it hurts the 10% to miss out on an education they don't want. If we were an infinitely wealthy civilization we could afford to do otherwise (ship the trouble cases to private schools, give them private tutors, whatever) but our ethics are constrained by the resources we have available. Anyway, I pulled the numbers above out of a hat, but I think the dilemma is very real and relevant: how do we prepare our kids for their future? (And how do we prepare ourselves? Most of us will still be alive in 2040.)
-M.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Titanic
Heh. The mission that found that Titanic was cover for a military investigation.
-M.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
-M.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Freeman Dyson
[Cc'ing blog. Would you believe someone actually read a blog post the other day? Wiggy, huh? -Max]
Dear Y.A.,
You've probably heard of Freeman Dyson, Inventor of the Dyson sphere and a rather famous physicist and mathematician. I find him tremendously entertaining (along with Richard Feynman). He once said (of his mixed record at predicting the future), "It is better to be wrong than vague." Anyway, he gives an interesting perspective on global warming and scientific free speech here: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21494
'In other words, if you disagree with the majority opinion about global warming, you are an enemy of science. The authors of the pamphlet appear to have forgotten the ancient motto of the Royal Society, Nullius in Verba, which means, "Nobody's word is final."'
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Dear Y.A.,
You've probably heard of Freeman Dyson, Inventor of the Dyson sphere and a rather famous physicist and mathematician. I find him tremendously entertaining (along with Richard Feynman). He once said (of his mixed record at predicting the future), "It is better to be wrong than vague." Anyway, he gives an interesting perspective on global warming and scientific free speech here: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21494
'In other words, if you disagree with the majority opinion about global warming, you are an enemy of science. The authors of the pamphlet appear to have forgotten the ancient motto of the Royal Society, Nullius in Verba, which means, "Nobody's word is final."'
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Al Qaeda
http://talismangate.blogspot.com/2008/05/fascinating-jihadists-admit-defeat-in.html
A prolific jihadist sympathizer has posted an 'explosive' study on one of the main jihadist websites in which he laments the dire situation that the mujaheddin find themselves in Iraq by citing the steep drop in the number of insurgent operations conducted by the various jihadist groups, most notably Al-Qaeda's 94 percent decline in operational ability over the last 12 months when only a year and half ago Al-Qaeda accounted for 60 percent of all jihadist activity!
The author, writing under the pseudonym 'Dir'a limen wehhed' ['A Shield for the Monotheist'], posted his 'Brief Study on the Consequences of the Division [Among] the [Jihadist] Groups on the Cause of Jihad in Iraq' on May 12 and it is being displayed by the administration of the Al-Ekhlaas website—one of Al-Qaeda's chief media outlets—among its more prominent recent posts. He's considered one of Al-Ekhlaas's "esteemed" writers.
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
A prolific jihadist sympathizer has posted an 'explosive' study on one of the main jihadist websites in which he laments the dire situation that the mujaheddin find themselves in Iraq by citing the steep drop in the number of insurgent operations conducted by the various jihadist groups, most notably Al-Qaeda's 94 percent decline in operational ability over the last 12 months when only a year and half ago Al-Qaeda accounted for 60 percent of all jihadist activity!
The author, writing under the pseudonym 'Dir'a limen wehhed' ['A Shield for the Monotheist'], posted his 'Brief Study on the Consequences of the Division [Among] the [Jihadist] Groups on the Cause of Jihad in Iraq' on May 12 and it is being displayed by the administration of the Al-Ekhlaas website—one of Al-Qaeda's chief media outlets—among its more prominent recent posts. He's considered one of Al-Ekhlaas's "esteemed" writers.
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Judicial overreach
Court orders the Treasury Department to redesign currency. (Actually, they're upholding a previous ruling.) This is ridiculous. I would not be sorry to see these judges impeached, although I would do more homework to double-check before voting "yea."
http://www.openmarket.org/2008/05/20/paper-money-discriminates-against-the-blind-appeals-court-says/
America is a democracy, not a judicial monarchy. The most ridiculous part is that the other branches of government treat judicial rulings as binding, which is arguably not the judicial branch's fault. The executive and legislative branches ought to, figuratively speaking, nod attentively and say "We'll take your opinion into consideration." Where there is no Constitutional authority there is no duty to obey.
-Max
P.S. A friend of mine notes that I am being unfair to the judges, one of whom he knows well. He is correct. My gut reaction was strong and possibly unfair to the individual judges involved. My response to him read, in part: "It is not-infrequently the case that an opinion which sounds outrageous is actually well justified by the particular circumstances involved. 'Hard cases make bad law.' It's also true that the bar for impeachment ought to be set fairly high for the sake of civil order--there are officials whom I would not vote to impreach, and yet would not be sorry to see impeached."
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
http://www.openmarket.org/2008/05/20/paper-money-discriminates-against-the-blind-appeals-court-says/
America is a democracy, not a judicial monarchy. The most ridiculous part is that the other branches of government treat judicial rulings as binding, which is arguably not the judicial branch's fault. The executive and legislative branches ought to, figuratively speaking, nod attentively and say "We'll take your opinion into consideration." Where there is no Constitutional authority there is no duty to obey.
-Max
P.S. A friend of mine notes that I am being unfair to the judges, one of whom he knows well. He is correct. My gut reaction was strong and possibly unfair to the individual judges involved. My response to him read, in part: "It is not-infrequently the case that an opinion which sounds outrageous is actually well justified by the particular circumstances involved. 'Hard cases make bad law.' It's also true that the bar for impeachment ought to be set fairly high for the sake of civil order--there are officials whom I would not vote to impreach, and yet would not be sorry to see impeached."
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Sexism
I liked this article, too.
"If Golda Meir, a woman of not only proclaimed but actual toughness, heard about Golda nutcrackers, she would have bought them by the case and given them away as party favors."
-M.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
"If Golda Meir, a woman of not only proclaimed but actual toughness, heard about Golda nutcrackers, she would have bought them by the case and given them away as party favors."
-M.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Another political heads-up
J.,
I know you must be getting tired of these. But.
Obama: "It is time for us to recognize that the future security and prosperity of the United States is fundamentally tied to the future of the Americas.... So my policy towards the Americas will be guided by the simple principle that what's good for the people of the Americas is good for the United States. That means measuring success not just through agreements among governments, but also through the hopes of the child in the favelas of Rio, the security for the policeman in Mexico City, and the answered cries of political prisoners heard from jails in Havana. The first and most fundamental freedom that we must work for is political freedom. The United States must be a relentless advocate for democracy."
Makes his opposition to the Colombia trade deal look pretty hypocritical. Or, more to the point, politically-motivated. Can Obama afford to become known as just another politician with enormous ambition?
Also, the talk about exporting democracy... isn't that why we've spent the last five years in Iraq, trying to export democracy and ensure political freedom in this Middle-Eastern country? (It's expensive. I'd rather focus on letting those who are interested in political freedom immigrate to America and be free, instead of trying to force them all to conform to the American mold. I'm willing to be proven wrong, but the attempt can get expensive.)
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
I know you must be getting tired of these. But.
Obama: "It is time for us to recognize that the future security and prosperity of the United States is fundamentally tied to the future of the Americas.... So my policy towards the Americas will be guided by the simple principle that what's good for the people of the Americas is good for the United States. That means measuring success not just through agreements among governments, but also through the hopes of the child in the favelas of Rio, the security for the policeman in Mexico City, and the answered cries of political prisoners heard from jails in Havana. The first and most fundamental freedom that we must work for is political freedom. The United States must be a relentless advocate for democracy."
Makes his opposition to the Colombia trade deal look pretty hypocritical. Or, more to the point, politically-motivated. Can Obama afford to become known as just another politician with enormous ambition?
Also, the talk about exporting democracy... isn't that why we've spent the last five years in Iraq, trying to export democracy and ensure political freedom in this Middle-Eastern country? (It's expensive. I'd rather focus on letting those who are interested in political freedom immigrate to America and be free, instead of trying to force them all to conform to the American mold. I'm willing to be proven wrong, but the attempt can get expensive.)
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
"You CAN'T soak the rich"
[Cc'ed A. and T.]
J.,
Sorry for all the political notes lately, but I'm kind of catching up. Anyway, this article was fascinating to me. "No matter what the tax rates have been, in postwar America tax revenues have remained at about 19.5% of GDP." Look at the graph.
Hauser's Law. I did some quick checking on this and in fact this datum doesn't seem to be widely known, much less controversial. Wiggy.
-M.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
J.,
Sorry for all the political notes lately, but I'm kind of catching up. Anyway, this article was fascinating to me. "No matter what the tax rates have been, in postwar America tax revenues have remained at about 19.5% of GDP." Look at the graph.
Hauser's Law. I did some quick checking on this and in fact this datum doesn't seem to be widely known, much less controversial. Wiggy.
-M.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Insight into McCain's mind
J.,
I think this is true. Interesting, no?
John McCain opposed the farm bill. In an impassioned speech on Monday, he declared: "It would be hard to find any single bill that better sums up why so many Americans in both parties are so disappointed in the conduct of their government, and at times so disgusted by it."
McCain has been in Congress for decades, but he has remained a national rather than a parochial politician. The main axis in his mind is not between Republican and Democrat. It's between narrow interest and patriotic service. And so it is characteristic that he would oppose a bill that benefits the particular at the expense of the general. [Emphasis added]
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
I think this is true. Interesting, no?
John McCain opposed the farm bill. In an impassioned speech on Monday, he declared: "It would be hard to find any single bill that better sums up why so many Americans in both parties are so disappointed in the conduct of their government, and at times so disgusted by it."
McCain has been in Congress for decades, but he has remained a national rather than a parochial politician. The main axis in his mind is not between Republican and Democrat. It's between narrow interest and patriotic service. And so it is characteristic that he would oppose a bill that benefits the particular at the expense of the general. [Emphasis added]
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Obama/McCain stock advice
[Cc'ed J.]
T. & D.,
I remember talking with you about how to respond as an individual to presidential election outcomes, since you can change your personal future more readily than you can change the national destiny. To that end, you may find this article interesting.
http://nymag.com/news/businessfinance/bottomline/47033/
Short version is this:
* Obama? Buy XTO and Chesapeake (natural gas), FirstSolar (economical solar) and Broadwind (wind power). McCain? Buy Shaw Group (nuclear).
* Obama? Buy financial. (Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, etc.) Avoid credit-card issuers (Capital One).
* McCain? Buy Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics (aviation and naval). Obama? Short Alliance Techsystems.
* Obama? Buy broadband (Level 3 Communications).
Either way, if you think you know who's going to win, place your bids well before November, before the big bids/losses get taken.
Best,
Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
T. & D.,
I remember talking with you about how to respond as an individual to presidential election outcomes, since you can change your personal future more readily than you can change the national destiny. To that end, you may find this article interesting.
http://nymag.com/news/businessfinance/bottomline/47033/
Short version is this:
* Obama? Buy XTO and Chesapeake (natural gas), FirstSolar (economical solar) and Broadwind (wind power). McCain? Buy Shaw Group (nuclear).
* Obama? Buy financial. (Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, etc.) Avoid credit-card issuers (Capital One).
* McCain? Buy Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics (aviation and naval). Obama? Short Alliance Techsystems.
* Obama? Buy broadband (Level 3 Communications).
Either way, if you think you know who's going to win, place your bids well before November, before the big bids/losses get taken.
Best,
Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Obama on Social Security
Donut hole. What an incredibly wrong idea. My figures indicates that the top 1% of Americans make about 20% of the gross taxable income and pay about 40% of the income taxes. The top 5% pays the next 20% of the taxes. Obama's plan would probably increase Social Security revenues by about a third (shooting from the hip--I'm guessing that the "donut hole" will cover most of that top 5% but not the top 1%, and that the top 5% makes about 40% of the gross income) which would solve the problem for the short term but do nothing for the long term. His idea of automatic savings accounts is a good one--Obama's concern is with a certain class of people who will save only if it's the "default" option and spend if that's the default, and that's legitimate--but for no discernible reason he then bashes privatizing Social Security. The "donut hole" provides a one-time boost to Social Security revenues but does nothing about the huge future growth. The ONLY acceptable reason I can think of for enacting a donut hole would be to ease the transition to a sustainable, savings-based Social Security system that grows with the economy. That is to say, funding privatization of Social Security. I have definite mixed feelings about complex tax laws and the very idea of a "donut hole," as well as the wisdom of another 7.5% tax hike on the top 1% (high taxes on a narrow base is fragile), but if he were planning something other than a short-term fix I would at least hear him out, but on this issue Obama doesn't have anything to say. Shallow thinking.
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Republicans
"If GOP Wants To Govern Like Dems, Why Have a Separate Party?"
Heh.
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Heh.
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
"Why doctors are moving to Texas"
Tort reform.
-B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
-B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Immigration and assimiliation
http://www.nysun.com/news/assimilation-factor
It turns out there is plenty of assimilation going on. Cubans and Vietnamese, for instance, are economically indistinguishable from natives. Germans are indistinguishable both culturally and economically. Some cities are doing better than others at assimilating newcomers. Houston, where Mexican and Central Americans predominate, has an assimilation index of just 19. New York, where no one group predominates, has a score of 31.
There's some bad news, too, but this much is good.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
It turns out there is plenty of assimilation going on. Cubans and Vietnamese, for instance, are economically indistinguishable from natives. Germans are indistinguishable both culturally and economically. Some cities are doing better than others at assimilating newcomers. Houston, where Mexican and Central Americans predominate, has an assimilation index of just 19. New York, where no one group predominates, has a score of 31.
There's some bad news, too, but this much is good.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Fun article on Clinton
Fun article. I agree, and I've felt some of this myself. This year's Democratic campaign has been a lot like Clausewitzian warfare, and as Obama shows more and more flaws Clinton's hanging in there begins to look less like sheer, detestable ambition and more like a sort of admirable scrappiness (and foresight). And it does help that all the liberals are starting to hate her. Strange times indeed, strange feelings to have.
There's also the related factor that she's gaining a reputation independent of Bill. Rightly or wrongly, Bill's defining characteristic in my mind is Teflon slipperyness. I don't think anyone could accuse Hillary of possessing that quality in this race--on the contrary she's gotten repeatedly hammered--and hers is grit. Still a lot of dishonesty baggage there, still a lot that she shares with Bill, but it's a start.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
There's also the related factor that she's gaining a reputation independent of Bill. Rightly or wrongly, Bill's defining characteristic in my mind is Teflon slipperyness. I don't think anyone could accuse Hillary of possessing that quality in this race--on the contrary she's gotten repeatedly hammered--and hers is grit. Still a lot of dishonesty baggage there, still a lot that she shares with Bill, but it's a start.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
News from Iraq
News from Iraq. Secondhand, but still interesting. Here's some of the fallout from that March offensive that the American media billed as a "disaster":
The political repercussions in Baghdad have been just as positive and just as unexpected. First, by taking on Shiite militias, Mr. Maliki has gained new-found respect from Kurds and Sunnis who had viewed him as a hopeless Shiite sectarian. Not coincidentally, the main Sunni party has now announced plans to rejoin the cabinet.
Second, Mr. Maliki has managed to mobilize the other Shiite parties into an anti-Mahdist bloc, demanding that Moqtada al Sadr disarm his militia if his party expects to wield political power. Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the senior Shiite cleric in Iraq, has backed that demand.
Mr. Sadr has so far refused to comply, but nor has he staged a major uprising across the country, probably because he knows it would not succeed. His plan to hold a "million man" anti-American protest in Baghdad on April 5 fizzled out at the last moment. Mr. Sadr appears increasingly isolated – as symbolized by the fact that he chooses to remain in Iran.
Finally, by exposing Iranian machinations in Basra, the recent offensive has sparked an anti-Iranian backlash even among Shiite politicians with longstanding links to Tehran. Thus a high-level Shiite delegation has gone to Iran to present the Iranian leadership with evidence of the nefarious activities of their Quds Force (as if they don't already know!) and to demand that they knock it off.
Political progress in Iraq is the area that has lagged behind, so it's interesting to see this happening.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
The political repercussions in Baghdad have been just as positive and just as unexpected. First, by taking on Shiite militias, Mr. Maliki has gained new-found respect from Kurds and Sunnis who had viewed him as a hopeless Shiite sectarian. Not coincidentally, the main Sunni party has now announced plans to rejoin the cabinet.
Second, Mr. Maliki has managed to mobilize the other Shiite parties into an anti-Mahdist bloc, demanding that Moqtada al Sadr disarm his militia if his party expects to wield political power. Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the senior Shiite cleric in Iraq, has backed that demand.
Mr. Sadr has so far refused to comply, but nor has he staged a major uprising across the country, probably because he knows it would not succeed. His plan to hold a "million man" anti-American protest in Baghdad on April 5 fizzled out at the last moment. Mr. Sadr appears increasingly isolated – as symbolized by the fact that he chooses to remain in Iran.
Finally, by exposing Iranian machinations in Basra, the recent offensive has sparked an anti-Iranian backlash even among Shiite politicians with longstanding links to Tehran. Thus a high-level Shiite delegation has gone to Iran to present the Iranian leadership with evidence of the nefarious activities of their Quds Force (as if they don't already know!) and to demand that they knock it off.
Political progress in Iraq is the area that has lagged behind, so it's interesting to see this happening.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Memory training
Wow, this is radical. Some researchers think they can increase fluid intelligence (the component of IQ which is generally considered to be immutable) by strengthening related neural circuitry. Dosage-dependent, too--the more you practice, the more benefit accrues, up to the point tested (19 days of training). If true, and if this can be done reliably, this is potentially great news--one of the dilemmas America is grappling with is how to ensure that everybody is productive (and feels useful) in a technological economy, and it would be nice to have a backup plan in case those who say that "everybody needs a college education" are actually correct. Raising fluid intelligence would let "everybody" have a college education without needing to lower education standards (for certain approximate values of "everybody").
On the other hand, a story this sensational is subject to distortion, so I don't take it too seriously. As a scientist, that is. As a human being, I wonder if I should be exercising my short-term memory. Actually, I'm tempted to write myself a "memory flashcard" program from the description in the experiment and run it on myself for a while.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Climate Change (interview)
An interview you might want to skim. http://icecap.us/images/uploads/DonEasterbrookInterviewTranscript.pdf. I haven't read it all but I'm interested what a specialist in "glacial geology," "Pleistocene geochronology," etc. has to say about the plausibility of unprecedented carbon dioxide levels melting the polar icecaps.
-M.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
-M.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Extreme optimism, socialism, and Obama
http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/2008/Q2/view515.html#Sunday for perspective on socialistic policies. Grounds for "extreme optimism" even in the worst case scenario. (Again, "extreme optimism is defined as a belief that civilization will probably survive, even if it doesn't take my advice." Extreme optimism makes it possible to watch politics without experiencing mood swings. <grin>)
If I assume that every one of Obama's tax and spending proposals are enacted, and if I use Wayne's Allard's estimate of their cost , Allard being a conservative Republican from Colorado, a rough guess would be that it would increase the Federal take by about 10%: from 20% of GDP to 22%. Allard claimed that those proposals would cost 1.4 trillion over five years. Since this year's budget is 3.1 trillion, the Feds are on course to spend 15.5 trillion over the next five years (assuming no spending increases under current or similar management - ha ha ha ha ha ha !). So more like a 9% increase in Federal spending. That also assumes that we don't leave Iraq, which would save ~150 billion a year.
For perspective, total US government spending (federal, state, and local) is about 32% of GDP: moving up to 34% is what we're talking about. Max.
For even more perspective, you might consider why Obama is getting more donations than anyone ever has: he has the hedge fund guys sending him the preponderance of their political donations, and that isn't because they think he's going to end capitalism. Of course they could be wrong. In fact, he's going to do without federal funding in the general campaign.
Those increases in taxes and spending might be a bad thing, but it wouldn't make us a socialist state: certainly less so than anywhere in western Europe.
Gregory Cochran
I don't think Cochran is an extreme optimist per se, but he is a pretty good crank-the-numbers-first skeptic, and worth listening to. On the other hand, I worry at least as much about Supreme Court appointments as I do about explicit policies. Look at how one little case (Thor Power Tool Company v. IRS) impacted the book industry. (http://www.sfwa.org/bulletin/articles/thor.htm if you're interested.) Obama has explicitly declared that he's not interested in appointing "rule of law" judges, and Obama's professed shock at discovering that his 20-year pastor actually believes the nonsense he's been preaching for years does not give me confidence in Obama's judgment. Wright by himself is relatively harmless outside the black community, media outrage notwithstanding, but I don't want to discover that Obama "accidentally" appointed a radical social reformer to the Supreme Court because he was moved by the fellow's "empathy." ("We need somebody who's got the heart, the empathy, to recognize what it's like to be a young teenage mom, the empathy to understand what it's like to be poor or African-American or gay or disabled or old--and that's the criterion by which I'll be selecting my judges." Hooray for the fallacy of intentions.)
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
If I assume that every one of Obama's tax and spending proposals are enacted, and if I use Wayne's Allard's estimate of their cost , Allard being a conservative Republican from Colorado, a rough guess would be that it would increase the Federal take by about 10%: from 20% of GDP to 22%. Allard claimed that those proposals would cost 1.4 trillion over five years. Since this year's budget is 3.1 trillion, the Feds are on course to spend 15.5 trillion over the next five years (assuming no spending increases under current or similar management - ha ha ha ha ha ha !). So more like a 9% increase in Federal spending. That also assumes that we don't leave Iraq, which would save ~150 billion a year.
For perspective, total US government spending (federal, state, and local) is about 32% of GDP: moving up to 34% is what we're talking about. Max.
For even more perspective, you might consider why Obama is getting more donations than anyone ever has: he has the hedge fund guys sending him the preponderance of their political donations, and that isn't because they think he's going to end capitalism. Of course they could be wrong. In fact, he's going to do without federal funding in the general campaign.
Those increases in taxes and spending might be a bad thing, but it wouldn't make us a socialist state: certainly less so than anywhere in western Europe.
Gregory Cochran
I don't think Cochran is an extreme optimist per se, but he is a pretty good crank-the-numbers-first skeptic, and worth listening to. On the other hand, I worry at least as much about Supreme Court appointments as I do about explicit policies. Look at how one little case (Thor Power Tool Company v. IRS) impacted the book industry. (http://www.sfwa.org/bulletin/articles/thor.htm if you're interested.) Obama has explicitly declared that he's not interested in appointing "rule of law" judges, and Obama's professed shock at discovering that his 20-year pastor actually believes the nonsense he's been preaching for years does not give me confidence in Obama's judgment. Wright by himself is relatively harmless outside the black community, media outrage notwithstanding, but I don't want to discover that Obama "accidentally" appointed a radical social reformer to the Supreme Court because he was moved by the fellow's "empathy." ("We need somebody who's got the heart, the empathy, to recognize what it's like to be a young teenage mom, the empathy to understand what it's like to be poor or African-American or gay or disabled or old--and that's the criterion by which I'll be selecting my judges." Hooray for the fallacy of intentions.)
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)