Dear J.,
I've been trying to remember this aphorism for the past week or so and I finally remembered enough of it to locate it:
"He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense." And the corollary, that in order to do arithmetic you need to be able to measure and quantify that which you are doing arithmetic on.
Not to say that there aren't things you can't quantify--sometimes you really are just doomed to talk nonsense, as witness the whole history of philosophy. :) Anyway, I'll try to remember this advice in this political silly season. There are things I like about McCain and things that scare me about Obama, but before committing the fallacy of intentions (e.g. assuming that because Obama is hostile to business and McCain is pro-growth, that McCain will be better for the economy) I will try to do some basic Back of the Envelope sanity-checking.
-M.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Friday, June 20, 2008
Ashdod: Reign of the Anakim (Part One)
Many ages ago, during the time of the Ascension Wars, there was a race of mighty men, the sons of Anak, dwelling in the twin cities of Ashdod and Ashkelon in the land of Southwest Lankwood. Our story begins in spring of the first year of the Ascension Wars. Rumors filled the land. It was said that the great hero Nimrod, the Mighty Hunter, Healer of the Lands, the Armorer, King of Inventions, would soon break free of his imprisonment in Tartarus and lead his ancient people to greatness and glory. Merchants brought tales from distant lands as well that many other ancient heroes, rivals of old to Nimrod and the Anakim, were beginning to stir as well. Among this number was Mania, Firstborn of Gaia and Lady of Tyrants, queen of the flesh-eating demon empire of Lanka--a land of Rakshasas, cruel spirits with the arms of apes and the heads of tigers and donkeys. Another old foe and sometimes-ally was Invicta, Lady of Mountains, empress of the Ermorian Empire (alas, the noble Republic of Ermor was no more). More troublesome was the report of a strange land of fire-breathing ghosts and demons known as the Oni. This land, known as Yomi, was reputedly ruled by a fierce magician known as Topigog, Prince of Might, King of Kings, Patron of Languages. Like many rulers in this time of chaos, Topigog was seeking to proclaim himself King and God-Emperor over the whole world. This the Anakim would not permit, and they readied themselves for war and prepared for the return of their own God-King, Nimrod, the Mighty Hunter.
Long had the Anakim kept to themselves, pondering the mysteries of the universe and brooding over the clay tablets which contained the records saved from the disaster when the Abysians burned the great city. The lands surrounding Southwest Lankwood contained valuable resources which would be needed for the war effort. As they were occupied by none save simple tribesmen, the Anakim felt justified in sending Aziru, Prophet of the Reawakening God, to subjugate the lands. Aziru proved his worth in inspiring his men with words of courage, and soon the lands were pacified by the Anakim and their human servants. Although some humans whispered that it was done with help from a roving band of human mercenaries as well, this was false, for was it not the great hero Yam-Nahar who had succeeded where the humans had failed and died, fighting armored knights in the Isle of the Hundred? By early fall of the first year the wood, metal, and stone of the tribes was being delivered to the Twin Cities of Ashdod and Ashkelon and the war machines were beginning to grind in earnest.
To be continued...
Long had the Anakim kept to themselves, pondering the mysteries of the universe and brooding over the clay tablets which contained the records saved from the disaster when the Abysians burned the great city. The lands surrounding Southwest Lankwood contained valuable resources which would be needed for the war effort. As they were occupied by none save simple tribesmen, the Anakim felt justified in sending Aziru, Prophet of the Reawakening God, to subjugate the lands. Aziru proved his worth in inspiring his men with words of courage, and soon the lands were pacified by the Anakim and their human servants. Although some humans whispered that it was done with help from a roving band of human mercenaries as well, this was false, for was it not the great hero Yam-Nahar who had succeeded where the humans had failed and died, fighting armored knights in the Isle of the Hundred? By early fall of the first year the wood, metal, and stone of the tribes was being delivered to the Twin Cities of Ashdod and Ashkelon and the war machines were beginning to grind in earnest.
To be continued...
Risk Aversion & Technological Progress
Interesting interview with Rear Adm. Jay M. Cohen, chief of naval research. These "flowers" aren't X-projects, but they stem from a similar perspective on risk-aversion as it related to technological progress.
Quote: "What are some examples of the Swampworks projects?"
Cohen: "Unclassified examples include efforts to actively cancel the noise [that] tactical jet aircraft engines make; [also,] an order of magnitude improvement in naval heavyweight torpedo performance in the littorals at half the weapon size; [and] a 360-degree, computer-aided camera for use on top of a submarine periscope or on land as an area surveillance and defense device."
"Has the Swampworks office met your expectations?
Cohen: "I will tell you that my disappointment to date, in myself, is that, of the dozen or so projects that we have done in the last three years, very few have failed. That tells me that . . . things that we thought were insolvable, things that seemed to be a bridge too far, we just hadn't tried the innovative solutions for. So we need to continually raise the bar to get even greater game-changers. We in naval research and S&T get paid to take risk. ... You don't get breakthroughs if you aren't willing to take risks."
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Quote: "What are some examples of the Swampworks projects?"
Cohen: "Unclassified examples include efforts to actively cancel the noise [that] tactical jet aircraft engines make; [also,] an order of magnitude improvement in naval heavyweight torpedo performance in the littorals at half the weapon size; [and] a 360-degree, computer-aided camera for use on top of a submarine periscope or on land as an area surveillance and defense device."
"Has the Swampworks office met your expectations?
Cohen: "I will tell you that my disappointment to date, in myself, is that, of the dozen or so projects that we have done in the last three years, very few have failed. That tells me that . . . things that we thought were insolvable, things that seemed to be a bridge too far, we just hadn't tried the innovative solutions for. So we need to continually raise the bar to get even greater game-changers. We in naval research and S&T get paid to take risk. ... You don't get breakthroughs if you aren't willing to take risks."
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Social Security Economics
This article makes some interesting points about higher marginal tax rates, specifically as they apply to Obama's Social Security plan and high-income entrepreneurs. I think the point about incentives is a good one.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Developing expertise
[Cc'ed J.]
T.,
Thought you might enjoy this article. You're probably familiar with Ericsson--even I think I've heard his ten-year idea before. It does remind me of our discussions about IQ, and also of the "Power Law of Practice." To me mind, this is an important counterpoint to the IQ discussion because it's about what IQ isn't: destiny.
-M.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Only in America
Y.A.,
This made me think about how much I love America.
Of course, Egyptians still have their grievances with America, and will in the future no matter who is president — and we've got a few grievances with them, too. But every once in a while, America does something so radical, so out of the ordinary — something that old, encrusted, traditional societies like those in the Middle East could simply never imagine — that it revives America's revolutionary "brand" overseas in a way that no diplomat could have designed or planned.
Remember Nebuchadnezzar's dream. The kingdom shall be partly broken, but also partly strong. I think the feet of clay are America.
-B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
This made me think about how much I love America.
Of course, Egyptians still have their grievances with America, and will in the future no matter who is president — and we've got a few grievances with them, too. But every once in a while, America does something so radical, so out of the ordinary — something that old, encrusted, traditional societies like those in the Middle East could simply never imagine — that it revives America's revolutionary "brand" overseas in a way that no diplomat could have designed or planned.
Remember Nebuchadnezzar's dream. The kingdom shall be partly broken, but also partly strong. I think the feet of clay are America.
-B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Spooky
[Cc'ed T., T., T., D., and A.]
J.,
As I read this article and this passage:
Yet al-Qaeda has weathered such setbacks before. When US-led attacks destroyed much of what existed on September 11, 2001 of its core command, it was not long before scores of self-radicalised terrorist cells had sprung up in the west. Jonathan Evans, director-general of MI5, Britain's domestic intelligence service, said in November that his agency knew of 2,000 people involved in terrorism and suspected there were many more.
I could not help but think of the occasions on which the Gadianton robbers were crushed by the Lamanites and righteous Nephites, only to have their practices eventually revived by corrupt Nephites seeking for power. This dispensation is different in that righteousness will finally prevail, but I'm still attentive to the growth of secret societies in the West.
-M.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Thought for the day
My position on "global warming" is thus:
I think it rather likely that CO2 emissions have contributed to temperature increases in the 20th century. I don't know anybody who disagrees with that, actually. The key policy question is whether we're headed for a disaster (which could vary from losing several habitats and hundreds of endangered species or to end of civilization as we know it in the worst case) if we don't classify CO2 as a dangerous pollutant and cease and desist from creating it. I confess that I'm not all that interested in the policy question. I'm interested in a different policy question, that of political and scientific free speech. Suppose that the most extreme apologists are correct and the physics of the universe is such that doubling the CO2 levels over the next century will raise global temperatures by five degrees Celsius, on average. Suppose that this is correct. It still remains the case that the science isn't good enough to prove it. I get concerned when people talk about "Global Warming Deniers" in the same tones they use for "Holocause Deniers" (Holocaust Denial, spelled in capital letters, is a crime in Germany) and say that the climate debate is "over" and that people who disagree are by definition not real scientists and should not receive public funding--and the ones who rely on private funding are by definition stooges of the energy industry.
Persecuting or criminalizing honest differences of opinion is a more serious matter in my eyes than spending $1 trillion to prevent a catastrophe that doesn't occur. I don't say this lightly because a trillion dollars is a lot of money. Of course Niven's Law says "No cause is so noble that one cannot find a fool following it" so the viciousness of many global warming apologists does not necessarily reflect poorly on their cause, but it does reflect poorly on our nation as a whole.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
I think it rather likely that CO2 emissions have contributed to temperature increases in the 20th century. I don't know anybody who disagrees with that, actually. The key policy question is whether we're headed for a disaster (which could vary from losing several habitats and hundreds of endangered species or to end of civilization as we know it in the worst case) if we don't classify CO2 as a dangerous pollutant and cease and desist from creating it. I confess that I'm not all that interested in the policy question. I'm interested in a different policy question, that of political and scientific free speech. Suppose that the most extreme apologists are correct and the physics of the universe is such that doubling the CO2 levels over the next century will raise global temperatures by five degrees Celsius, on average. Suppose that this is correct. It still remains the case that the science isn't good enough to prove it. I get concerned when people talk about "Global Warming Deniers" in the same tones they use for "Holocause Deniers" (Holocaust Denial, spelled in capital letters, is a crime in Germany) and say that the climate debate is "over" and that people who disagree are by definition not real scientists and should not receive public funding--and the ones who rely on private funding are by definition stooges of the energy industry.
Persecuting or criminalizing honest differences of opinion is a more serious matter in my eyes than spending $1 trillion to prevent a catastrophe that doesn't occur. I don't say this lightly because a trillion dollars is a lot of money. Of course Niven's Law says "No cause is so noble that one cannot find a fool following it" so the viciousness of many global warming apologists does not necessarily reflect poorly on their cause, but it does reflect poorly on our nation as a whole.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Education
J.
You're interested in education. I thought you might find this (quite short) article interesting. Not that there aren't always two sides to every story, but still, I found this rather heartwarming.
http://www.academicvc.com/2008/05/tech-high-school-graduation-on-sunday.html
~Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
You're interested in education. I thought you might find this (quite short) article interesting. Not that there aren't always two sides to every story, but still, I found this rather heartwarming.
http://www.academicvc.com/2008/05/tech-high-school-graduation-on-sunday.html
~Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Monday, June 2, 2008
Going to the Moon
J.,
Here's an interesting update on the Lunar X-Prize. http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008/pulpit_20080530_004991.html
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Here's an interesting update on the Lunar X-Prize. http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008/pulpit_20080530_004991.html
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Pro-growth politics
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/01/AR2008060101917.html
Some good thoughts here. Non-partisan but pro-Obama.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Some good thoughts here. Non-partisan but pro-Obama.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
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