I got a kick out of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rAHrHd2lcw
Of course, at the same time it makes me kind of uneasy. I don't know exactly what they're saying, but it looks almost like a glorification of military might. When I watch war movies like Ghettysburg, it's to remind myself of the horrors of war as well as to honor our "honored dead." In the words of a great man, "You cannot qualify war in harsher terms than I will. War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it; and those who brought war into our country deserve all the curses and maledictions a people can pour out." (William T. Sherman.) We remember the wars of the past so we can appreciate the peace we have today, and take up arms only to fight an evil greater than the one we embrace by fighting. As has often been observed, "Armies break things and kill people. It's what they're trained to do and it's what they do do. If you don't want that to happen, don't send in the army, send in the police or stay out of it." War is not a thing to begin lightly.
-M.
P.S. More Sherman:
You have heretofore read public sentiment in your newspapers, that live by falsehood and excitement; and the quicker you seek for truth in other quarters, the better. I repeat then that, by the original compact of government, the United States had certain rights in Georgia, which have never been relinquished and never will be; that the South began the war by seizing forts, arsenals, mints, custom-houses, etc., etc., long before Mr. Lincoln was installed, and before the South had one jot or tittle of provocation. I myself have seen in Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi, hundreds and thousands of women and children fleeing from your armies and desperadoes, hungry and with bleeding feet. In Memphis, Vicksburg, and Mississippi, we fed thousands and thousands of the families of rebel soldiers left on our hands, and whom we could not see starve. Now that war comes to you, you feel very different. You deprecate its horrors, but did not feel them when you sent car-loads of soldiers and ammunition, and moulded shells and shot, to carry war into Kentucky and Tennessee, to desolate the homes of hundreds and thousands of good people who only asked to live in peace at their old homes, and under the Government of their inheritance. But these comparisons are idle. I want peace, and believe it can only be reached through union and war, and I will ever conduct war with a view to perfect an early success.
But, my dear sirs, when peace does come, you may call on me for any thing. Then will I share with you the last cracker, and watch with you to shield your homes and families against danger from every quarter.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Element-122
Element-122 discovered (found in the wild, no less). Probably. http://arxivblog.com/?p=385
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Nuclear power
What the nuclear power industry (in Britain) wants, as incentives to build more nuclear power plants. Much of this would probably apply in the U.S., too. I would rather live without the long-term fixed carbon prices (it would increase the average cost of energy) but the others seem potentially doable, if someone (McCain? Obama? Congress?) made it a priority. I especially think long-term supply contracts and licensing/regulatory streamlinging are good ideas. Of course, if we don't do it, someone else will. That someone will also probably be the dominant power of the majority of the 21st century.
Long-term fixed carbon prices
One of the key reasons nuclear power has made a comeback is because of its near-zero carbon emissions. As carbon trading takes off, there has been very little development of the market beyond a few years and the price has tended to be on the low side as well as volatile. Some in the nuclear industry would like to see carbon price out into the future as much as 40 years
and for there to be a fixed floor price, perhaps as high as €40 per tonne.
A permanent underground solution for the long-term storage of nuclear waste
During the mid 1980s, four sites were identified as possible repositories of nuclear waste and then, after a major political row, all were rejected. Since then the interim waste solution has been focused on largely uneconomic reprocessing and high security storage above ground pending an agreed site for geological disposal, 200 to 1,000m below ground.
An easing of planning and consultation constraints
Sizewell B's planning enquiry took a record 340 days. The public enquiry, nearly four years from 1983 - 1985. More recently, in 2007, Greenpeace took the government at its word and successfully challenged the absence of consultation on new nuclear build meaning that the government has to spend even more time consulting as wide as possible. All of this is very expensive and off-putting to nuclear investors, especially by international comparison.
A streamlined licensing approval from the nuclear installations inspectorate of the five available designs
These are: The Framatome ANP EPR, the Evolutionary Power Reactor; The Westinghouse AP1000; The Atomic Energy of Canada ACR-1000; The General Electric Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (ESBWR); The Eskom Pebble Bed Modular Reactor.
The NII is just too small to approve and license all of the nuclear designs in good time and this could delay nuclear a year and a half. To its credit, the government has recognised this, and the January 2008 white paper spoke of a prioritisation exercise. But it should go further. Realistically, the Framatome and Westinghouse are the leading contenders, so it might be a good idea to just to focus on those two first rather than try and approve them all simultaneously. Nevertheless, the 'Generic Design Assessment' is expected to take over three years to complete. So there's plenty of room for improvement there.
The government must issue a long-term financial indemnity for new build
Network Rail, is able to afford an enormous £40bn of investment in the railways over the next few years because the government has backed it with a financial indeminity. This much lowers the cost of debt raised for Network Rail, allowing it to do more with less. A similar scheme for nuclear power stations, which will cost a great deal less at £1.5bn each would dramatically lower the cost of capital and thus entice nuclear investors.
Long-term supply contracts
As the up-front, overnight capital costs are so great for nuclear, investors need to know that there will be customers a long way down the road, as much as 40 years, if they are to recoup their funds with some profits. This principle is clearly accepted in the field of Renewables – the Renewable Obligation currently goes out as far as 2027.
The government may have therefore to oblige public electricity suppliers via Ofgem to – as part of their licence conditions – to buy a certain percentage of their electricity requirements from nuclear generators. That would be a Nuclear Purchasing Obligation, very like the Renewables Obligation.
Interesting reading. Recommended.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Long-term fixed carbon prices
One of the key reasons nuclear power has made a comeback is because of its near-zero carbon emissions. As carbon trading takes off, there has been very little development of the market beyond a few years and the price has tended to be on the low side as well as volatile. Some in the nuclear industry would like to see carbon price out into the future as much as 40 years
and for there to be a fixed floor price, perhaps as high as €40 per tonne.
A permanent underground solution for the long-term storage of nuclear waste
During the mid 1980s, four sites were identified as possible repositories of nuclear waste and then, after a major political row, all were rejected. Since then the interim waste solution has been focused on largely uneconomic reprocessing and high security storage above ground pending an agreed site for geological disposal, 200 to 1,000m below ground.
An easing of planning and consultation constraints
Sizewell B's planning enquiry took a record 340 days. The public enquiry, nearly four years from 1983 - 1985. More recently, in 2007, Greenpeace took the government at its word and successfully challenged the absence of consultation on new nuclear build meaning that the government has to spend even more time consulting as wide as possible. All of this is very expensive and off-putting to nuclear investors, especially by international comparison.
A streamlined licensing approval from the nuclear installations inspectorate of the five available designs
These are: The Framatome ANP EPR, the Evolutionary Power Reactor; The Westinghouse AP1000; The Atomic Energy of Canada ACR-1000; The General Electric Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (ESBWR); The Eskom Pebble Bed Modular Reactor.
The NII is just too small to approve and license all of the nuclear designs in good time and this could delay nuclear a year and a half. To its credit, the government has recognised this, and the January 2008 white paper spoke of a prioritisation exercise. But it should go further. Realistically, the Framatome and Westinghouse are the leading contenders, so it might be a good idea to just to focus on those two first rather than try and approve them all simultaneously. Nevertheless, the 'Generic Design Assessment' is expected to take over three years to complete. So there's plenty of room for improvement there.
The government must issue a long-term financial indemnity for new build
Network Rail, is able to afford an enormous £40bn of investment in the railways over the next few years because the government has backed it with a financial indeminity. This much lowers the cost of debt raised for Network Rail, allowing it to do more with less. A similar scheme for nuclear power stations, which will cost a great deal less at £1.5bn each would dramatically lower the cost of capital and thus entice nuclear investors.
Long-term supply contracts
As the up-front, overnight capital costs are so great for nuclear, investors need to know that there will be customers a long way down the road, as much as 40 years, if they are to recoup their funds with some profits. This principle is clearly accepted in the field of Renewables – the Renewable Obligation currently goes out as far as 2027.
The government may have therefore to oblige public electricity suppliers via Ofgem to – as part of their licence conditions – to buy a certain percentage of their electricity requirements from nuclear generators. That would be a Nuclear Purchasing Obligation, very like the Renewables Obligation.
Interesting reading. Recommended.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Graph: U.S. Tariffs
Y.A.,
May come in handy:
http://pw1.netcom.com/~rdavis2/tariffs.html
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
May come in handy:
http://pw1.netcom.com/~rdavis2/tariffs.html
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Roots of the subprime situation
Moody's did not have access to the individual loan files, much less did it communicate with the borrowers or try to verify the information they provided in their loan applications. "We aren't loan officers," Claire Robinson, a 20-year veteran who is in charge of asset-backed finance for Moody's, told me. "Our expertise is as statisticians on an aggregate basis. We want to know, of 1,000 individuals, based on historical performance, what percent will pay their loans?"
Emphasis added. The article is much deeper than this point, though, and I'm still digesting.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Emphasis added. The article is much deeper than this point, though, and I'm still digesting.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Bill Cosby
I like him.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Wealth inequality
Hypothesis: Technology and Education are opposed factors. Education is losing.
http://aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.27837/pub_detail.asp
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
http://aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.27837/pub_detail.asp
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
21st century tech
Sorry for yet another post on politics:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cs_20080416_3324.php
If the Democrats can pull this one off and elect Obama (Clinton has zero chance at this point, and I don't think Democrats are going to nominate a dark horse), it will be due to two factors: 1.) The country is sick of Republicans, and 2.) They're doing a better job at exploiting technology (cell phones and the Internet).
The impact of #1 is lessened because a lot of the Republicans who were sick of Republicans in 2006 were upset about fiscal discipline. They weren't sorry that the GOP got whipped in 2006, but they'll largely come back to the fold this year to vote for McCain if not necessarily their local Congressman. If I had to guess I'd say, quantitately, that this alleviates about half the Republican image vulnerability. The other half is about appeal to independents, and I don't know whether Obama or McCain is going to wind up with the advantage there--McCain has a strategic advantage (America is a center-right nation, and independents probably share more opinions with McCain than Obama) but Obama will have the tactical advantage (more funding, more volunteers). Hang on for a wild ride!
Remember that a key ingredient for a functional democracy is that you can handle losing an election. If the stakes rise so high that you can't afford to lose, there's no incentive to play fair or to concede defeat once you lose (see Alma 2:7-10). At this point I prefer McCain's platform to Obama's, but the definition of an extreme optimist is "someone who believes that civilization will probably survive, even if it doesn't take his advice." If Obama takes it, so be it, and I'll hope for the best.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cs_20080416_3324.php
If the Democrats can pull this one off and elect Obama (Clinton has zero chance at this point, and I don't think Democrats are going to nominate a dark horse), it will be due to two factors: 1.) The country is sick of Republicans, and 2.) They're doing a better job at exploiting technology (cell phones and the Internet).
The impact of #1 is lessened because a lot of the Republicans who were sick of Republicans in 2006 were upset about fiscal discipline. They weren't sorry that the GOP got whipped in 2006, but they'll largely come back to the fold this year to vote for McCain if not necessarily their local Congressman. If I had to guess I'd say, quantitately, that this alleviates about half the Republican image vulnerability. The other half is about appeal to independents, and I don't know whether Obama or McCain is going to wind up with the advantage there--McCain has a strategic advantage (America is a center-right nation, and independents probably share more opinions with McCain than Obama) but Obama will have the tactical advantage (more funding, more volunteers). Hang on for a wild ride!
Remember that a key ingredient for a functional democracy is that you can handle losing an election. If the stakes rise so high that you can't afford to lose, there's no incentive to play fair or to concede defeat once you lose (see Alma 2:7-10). At this point I prefer McCain's platform to Obama's, but the definition of an extreme optimist is "someone who believes that civilization will probably survive, even if it doesn't take his advice." If Obama takes it, so be it, and I'll hope for the best.
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Lambda functions (C++)
C++0x has voted in lambda functions! Yay!!! With type inferencing, template concepts, and lambda functions, C++ may very well reclaim its place in my heart as my favorite programming language.
http://herbsutter.wordpress.com/2008/03/29/trip-report-februarymarch-2008-iso-c-standards-meeting/
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
http://herbsutter.wordpress.com/2008/03/29/trip-report-februarymarch-2008-iso-c-standards-meeting/
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Regulation
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=293323242465620
Regulation has costs — both monetary and through the inhibition of innovation — which must be weighed against benefits. [snip]
Then there is a proposed Department of Transportation rule that would force infants to occupy their own seats on commercial flights, which would yield an expected savings of one life per two years — but would produce a significant net increase in risk, as studies show that parents choose to drive rather than purchase additional tickets.
Some of the worst regulatory excesses occur when the government is exercising its "gatekeeper" role, in which it must grant permission before a product can be marketed, as is the case for pharmaceuticals and pesticides.
Regulators of these products are highly risk-averse, often discounting or ignoring the costs of life-saving products that are delayed or abandoned. As a result of pharmaceutical regulators constantly raising the bar for approval, bringing a new drug to market now requires 12 to 15 years and costs more than $1 billion (in direct and indirect costs).
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Regulation has costs — both monetary and through the inhibition of innovation — which must be weighed against benefits. [snip]
Then there is a proposed Department of Transportation rule that would force infants to occupy their own seats on commercial flights, which would yield an expected savings of one life per two years — but would produce a significant net increase in risk, as studies show that parents choose to drive rather than purchase additional tickets.
Some of the worst regulatory excesses occur when the government is exercising its "gatekeeper" role, in which it must grant permission before a product can be marketed, as is the case for pharmaceuticals and pesticides.
Regulators of these products are highly risk-averse, often discounting or ignoring the costs of life-saving products that are delayed or abandoned. As a result of pharmaceutical regulators constantly raising the bar for approval, bringing a new drug to market now requires 12 to 15 years and costs more than $1 billion (in direct and indirect costs).
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Republicans & the U.S. Economy
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/how_will_mccain_handle_are_you.html
In a debate at The George Washington University on Feb. 25, a team of four Democratic Congressmen led by Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) demolished a team of Republicans led by Rep. Adam Putnam (Fla.) by citing all the evidence that Americans are not better off than they were when George W. Bush became president.
Such as: Median household income in the United States rose $6,000 in the eight years of Bill Clinton's administration, to $49,163, but fell to $48,023 during Bush's first six years in office. Certainly, it's still falling.
Also, the economy grew by an average of 4 percent during the Clinton years and created an average 1.8 million jobs a year. Under Bush, gross domestic product has grown just 2.7 percent a year and created 369,000 jobs a year - and a recession is probably under way to cut even those numbers...
In the GW debate, Emanuel and fellow Democrats Steve Israel (N.Y.), Artur Davis (Ala.) and Robert Andrews (N.J.) pummeled Republicans Putnam, Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.), Paul Ryan (Wis.) and Eric Cantor (Va.) with the numbers, and the Republicans had no refutation to make.
Democrats will do the same to McCain, and he'd better get ready with answers.
Anyone who's interested should probably start by examing GDP growth trends:
http://www.data360.org/graph_group.aspx?Graph_Group_Id=149
Real growth rates have declined sharply over the last 30 years. In some ways that's not surprising because growth has an asymptotic component (growth rates are highest in underdeveloped countries: http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_gdp_rea_gro_rat-economy-gdp-real-growth-rate) but that's not really a satisfactory answer. What makes economic growth happen, what have we been doing wrong lately, and what should we be doing now? Worthwhile questions.
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
In a debate at The George Washington University on Feb. 25, a team of four Democratic Congressmen led by Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) demolished a team of Republicans led by Rep. Adam Putnam (Fla.) by citing all the evidence that Americans are not better off than they were when George W. Bush became president.
Such as: Median household income in the United States rose $6,000 in the eight years of Bill Clinton's administration, to $49,163, but fell to $48,023 during Bush's first six years in office. Certainly, it's still falling.
Also, the economy grew by an average of 4 percent during the Clinton years and created an average 1.8 million jobs a year. Under Bush, gross domestic product has grown just 2.7 percent a year and created 369,000 jobs a year - and a recession is probably under way to cut even those numbers...
In the GW debate, Emanuel and fellow Democrats Steve Israel (N.Y.), Artur Davis (Ala.) and Robert Andrews (N.J.) pummeled Republicans Putnam, Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.), Paul Ryan (Wis.) and Eric Cantor (Va.) with the numbers, and the Republicans had no refutation to make.
Democrats will do the same to McCain, and he'd better get ready with answers.
Anyone who's interested should probably start by examing GDP growth trends:
http://www.data360.org/graph_group.aspx?Graph_Group_Id=149
Real growth rates have declined sharply over the last 30 years. In some ways that's not surprising because growth has an asymptotic component (growth rates are highest in underdeveloped countries: http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_gdp_rea_gro_rat-economy-gdp-real-growth-rate) but that's not really a satisfactory answer. What makes economic growth happen, what have we been doing wrong lately, and what should we be doing now? Worthwhile questions.
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Heads-up: the Future of America
It looks pretty likely at this point that John McCain is going to be our next President. (I know, I'm surprised too. Three months ago I thought Obama was going to take it.) With that in mind, you may want to check out his agenda for the American economy. If you don't have time to read the speech, take five minutes and watch the video.
If you're short on time, skip the rest of my message and watch the video. Okay?
...
Okay.
It's a pretty good plan, actually. I'm impressed. He has good advisors--and the principles he's advocating (pro-growth, transparency) are correct. Obama is preaching governmental transparency too, and I'll comment some other time on the other interesting part of the presidential campaign: since the campaign is a job interview with the American people, it's a pretty fair bet that any idea that catches on with most or all of the American electorate will be adopted by any candidate who makes it through the primaries (or else they won't make it through the primaries). That's why some people vote for third parties--a successful third party usually has its platform absorbed by the major parties, so a vote for a third party isn't necessarily "throwing away your vote" so much as voting for a platform. Anyway, the fact that McCain and Obama are both pushing for governmental transparency[1] indicates to me that it's probably going to happen. That's 21st century government for you, apparently.
Interesting times.
-Max
[1] McCain says, "We're going to make every aspect of government purchases and performance transparent. Information on every step of contracts and grants will be posted on the Internet in plain and simple English. We're going to post an agency's performance evaluation as well." How would you like to know the efficiency rating of the IRS? How about the Department of Education? Knowing how well things are going is a necessary precondition to voting for productive reforms; it also serves to give government programs performance incentives resembling those in the private sector--produce results or perish.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
If you're short on time, skip the rest of my message and watch the video. Okay?
...
Okay.
It's a pretty good plan, actually. I'm impressed. He has good advisors--and the principles he's advocating (pro-growth, transparency) are correct. Obama is preaching governmental transparency too, and I'll comment some other time on the other interesting part of the presidential campaign: since the campaign is a job interview with the American people, it's a pretty fair bet that any idea that catches on with most or all of the American electorate will be adopted by any candidate who makes it through the primaries (or else they won't make it through the primaries). That's why some people vote for third parties--a successful third party usually has its platform absorbed by the major parties, so a vote for a third party isn't necessarily "throwing away your vote" so much as voting for a platform. Anyway, the fact that McCain and Obama are both pushing for governmental transparency[1] indicates to me that it's probably going to happen. That's 21st century government for you, apparently.
Interesting times.
-Max
[1] McCain says, "We're going to make every aspect of government purchases and performance transparent. Information on every step of contracts and grants will be posted on the Internet in plain and simple English. We're going to post an agency's performance evaluation as well." How would you like to know the efficiency rating of the IRS? How about the Department of Education? Knowing how well things are going is a necessary precondition to voting for productive reforms; it also serves to give government programs performance incentives resembling those in the private sector--produce results or perish.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Bypass surgery may cause brain damage? (Bill Clinton)
This is interesting in a medical more than a political sense, but the political background (Bill Clinton's erratic performance during this year's presidential campaign) may put the medical into perspective. On the other hand, while the phenomenon alleged is interesting, I would want more data before I put too much stock in it as the reason for Bill Clinton's performance. All of this is just a long-winded way of saying, "I thought this was interesting."
http://www.drmcdougall.com/misc/2008other/080412clinton.htm
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
http://www.drmcdougall.com/misc/2008other/080412clinton.htm
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Politics (McCain interview)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/john_mccain_on_kudlow_company.html
I'm impressed by some points he makes about CEO performance and gasoline prices for poor people.
The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
I'm impressed by some points he makes about CEO performance and gasoline prices for poor people.
The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Friday, April 11, 2008
High school story (Valentine's Day)
My roommates are watching Sneakers right now, and the part with the computer dating reminds me of a story from high school. For Valentine's Day the student body offered a computerized "compatibility rating" service--you fill out your answers to a set of questions (music tastes, hobbies, etc.), and they tell you the top 10 other students of the appropriate sex matching your answers, on the grounds that that this constitutes "compatibility." They also told you your two least-compatible matches. Well, for fun, I signed up and filled out a questionnaire. My #1 compatibility rating was, IIRC, 63%. I asked around among my friends and found that for most of them, the top match was usually 75-80% and all ten of the top matches were rated higher than my #1 match. Even more amusingly, I showed up as the "least compatible" match on something like 25% of the readouts I checked.
It doesn't mean anything in particular, since the questionnaire was a bunch of trivial personality-level stuff that doesn't, IMHO, measure the traits I actually look for in girls. Perhaps it measures what girls look for, though--I suppose the student body officers probably knew girls better than I do.
Then there was the time I took a job aptitude test as a sophomore and they told me I didn't fit the profile of any known profession--I told everyone they basically advised me to become a bum...
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
It doesn't mean anything in particular, since the questionnaire was a bunch of trivial personality-level stuff that doesn't, IMHO, measure the traits I actually look for in girls. Perhaps it measures what girls look for, though--I suppose the student body officers probably knew girls better than I do.
Then there was the time I took a job aptitude test as a sophomore and they told me I didn't fit the profile of any known profession--I told everyone they basically advised me to become a bum...
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Obama. Lobbyists?
Obama has been running ads lately boasting that he's the only candidate who doesn't take money from "lobbyists." Is that true? Not really. There's a small group of people categorized as "federal lobbyists" who appear to be generic lobbyists-for-hire in Washington (not attached to any particular company or industry). They and their close associates have given $800,000 to Clinton, $400,000 to McCain, and $86,000 to Obama, and Obama's campaign says it rejects these contributions when it notices them. That's peanuts. Obama's campaign is perfectly willing to accept lobbyists as campaign advisors (Broderick Johnson) or fund-raising "bundlers" (Frank Clark), and to accept money from lobbyists outside this group (he accepted $100,000 from a law firm called Sidley Austin LLP which lobbies in Washington to the tune of $4.5 million a year).
More data here from the Clinton campaign. This is going to bite Obama, even though the other candidates also accept lobbyist money, because he's the one trying to make it part of his primary message. You can't hide facts in the Internet age. :)
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
More data here from the Clinton campaign. This is going to bite Obama, even though the other candidates also accept lobbyist money, because he's the one trying to make it part of his primary message. You can't hide facts in the Internet age. :)
~B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Afghanistan/Pakistan
Some interesting reading. http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/962sandw.asp
To begin with, numerous senators spoke of the Afghan-Pakistan border area as though there were no border--forces poured into Afghanistan would somehow directly affect what was going on in Pakistan or, alternatively, the real al Qaeda was on the Afghan side where U.S. troops could get at them. Speaking ethnographically, of course, there is no border--the Durand
Line that separates Afghanistan from Pakistan cuts the Pashtun nation just about in half, and the porous border has seen decades of happy smuggling. But the border is very real both to our forces and to their enemies. Our troops know that they cannot cross into Pakistan, and the enemy knows it too. That's why the bases of the "real" al Qaeda are not in Afghanistan--American troops in Afghanistan report very few al Qaeda fighters and those they do come across are mostly operating out of Pakistani bases. The al Qaeda bases that harbor Osama bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahiri, and the other al Qaeda leaders plotting the attacks against which the Intelligence Community warns are in Pakistan--principally Waziristan in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Chitral in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP).
This supplies some context around McCain's criticism of Obama's proposal to strike inside Afghanistan. Here's a link to Obama's side of the story: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/367/. From reading the above article, my reading of the situation--and I'm obviously no military expert--is that when Obama advocates "taking action" against Pakistan, he means minimalist strikes with special forces and Predator drones against specific Al Qaeda targets in Pakistan. McCain is more aware of the scope of the problem and assumes Obama means something big enough to actually dent Al Qaeda (which would probably entail ground troops moreso than bombing, a literal invasion, but being a pilot McCain speaks in terms of bombing first) and simultaneously threaten Pakistan's sovereignty. Obama's camp accuses McCain of twisting Obama's words, but in actuality McCain is simply overestimating Obama's military competency: Obama may be right that special forces operations and Predator strikes would be diplomatically feasible, but they simply wouldn't be effective. Obama is showing his inexperience.
Another interesting quote from the Pakistan article:
To the question, "Is there really nothing we can do unless we send more troops?" the answer is unequivocally that there is something we can do. Congress can do it, in fact, and very quickly. Pass the supplemental defense appropriation that would allow development money to flow reliably to our soldiers in Afghanistan as well as Iraq. The advantage of Afghanistan's poverty (for us) is that a little money goes a long way. American soldiers have increasingly been leveraging development funds to starve the insurgency of recruits in a way similar to what has worked in Iraq (but tailored appropriately to conditions in Afghanistan).
Apparently some of the institutional competency gained in Iraq is transferring to other regions. [Blog readers, if you exist: please take a moment to peruse http://www.spiritofamerica.net/.] That's good news.
-B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
To begin with, numerous senators spoke of the Afghan-Pakistan border area as though there were no border--forces poured into Afghanistan would somehow directly affect what was going on in Pakistan or, alternatively, the real al Qaeda was on the Afghan side where U.S. troops could get at them. Speaking ethnographically, of course, there is no border--the Durand
Line that separates Afghanistan from Pakistan cuts the Pashtun nation just about in half, and the porous border has seen decades of happy smuggling. But the border is very real both to our forces and to their enemies. Our troops know that they cannot cross into Pakistan, and the enemy knows it too. That's why the bases of the "real" al Qaeda are not in Afghanistan--American troops in Afghanistan report very few al Qaeda fighters and those they do come across are mostly operating out of Pakistani bases. The al Qaeda bases that harbor Osama bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahiri, and the other al Qaeda leaders plotting the attacks against which the Intelligence Community warns are in Pakistan--principally Waziristan in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Chitral in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP).
This supplies some context around McCain's criticism of Obama's proposal to strike inside Afghanistan. Here's a link to Obama's side of the story: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/367/. From reading the above article, my reading of the situation--and I'm obviously no military expert--is that when Obama advocates "taking action" against Pakistan, he means minimalist strikes with special forces and Predator drones against specific Al Qaeda targets in Pakistan. McCain is more aware of the scope of the problem and assumes Obama means something big enough to actually dent Al Qaeda (which would probably entail ground troops moreso than bombing, a literal invasion, but being a pilot McCain speaks in terms of bombing first) and simultaneously threaten Pakistan's sovereignty. Obama's camp accuses McCain of twisting Obama's words, but in actuality McCain is simply overestimating Obama's military competency: Obama may be right that special forces operations and Predator strikes would be diplomatically feasible, but they simply wouldn't be effective. Obama is showing his inexperience.
Another interesting quote from the Pakistan article:
To the question, "Is there really nothing we can do unless we send more troops?" the answer is unequivocally that there is something we can do. Congress can do it, in fact, and very quickly. Pass the supplemental defense appropriation that would allow development money to flow reliably to our soldiers in Afghanistan as well as Iraq. The advantage of Afghanistan's poverty (for us) is that a little money goes a long way. American soldiers have increasingly been leveraging development funds to starve the insurgency of recruits in a way similar to what has worked in Iraq (but tailored appropriately to conditions in Afghanistan).
Apparently some of the institutional competency gained in Iraq is transferring to other regions. [Blog readers, if you exist: please take a moment to peruse http://www.spiritofamerica.net/.] That's good news.
-B.C.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
On subprime mortgages
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2008/04/predatory_lending_or_mortgage.html
One measure of the possible extent of the fraud: BasePoint Analytics took a look at millions of subprime loans and found that in 70 percent of cases where mortgages go bad quickly (exactly the kinds of mortgages that account for a chunk of today's rising default rates), there was some misrepresentation by the borrower, broker or appraiser, or some combination of the three. Those loans were five times more likely to default quickly than mortgages without falsifications.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
One measure of the possible extent of the fraud: BasePoint Analytics took a look at millions of subprime loans and found that in 70 percent of cases where mortgages go bad quickly (exactly the kinds of mortgages that account for a chunk of today's rising default rates), there was some misrepresentation by the borrower, broker or appraiser, or some combination of the three. Those loans were five times more likely to default quickly than mortgages without falsifications.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Useful websites
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/connected/main.jhtml?xml=/connected/2008/03/30/sv_101websites.xml&page=3
Interesting browsing.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Interesting browsing.
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Olympic Torch
I always wondered what they would do if this happened:
Passing through Paris under armed guard, the torch was extinguished several times, and police officers moved it aboard a bus to protect it as demonstrators swarmed the security detail.
I'm kind of sad that the response was so pedestrian. I always sort of hoped that they would go back to Athens to get a new flame. I mean, what's the point of running the torch round the world if it's not even the same flame you got from Athens? [Max pointedly ignores the ghost of Heraclitus hovering over his left shoulder.]
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
Passing through Paris under armed guard, the torch was extinguished several times, and police officers moved it aboard a bus to protect it as demonstrators swarmed the security detail.
I'm kind of sad that the response was so pedestrian. I always sort of hoped that they would go back to Athens to get a new flame. I mean, what's the point of running the torch round the world if it's not even the same flame you got from Athens? [Max pointedly ignores the ghost of Heraclitus hovering over his left shoulder.]
-Max
--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.
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