Saturday, May 29, 2010
Ex-girlfriends
Thursday, April 29, 2010
About Eggs
- Chickens are "indeterminate" egg-layers, which means instead of laying a fixed number of eggs a fixed number of times per year, they keep on laying each day until they accumulate a certain number. If a predator, such as a human, takes one of the eggs before she finishes she will replace it before stopping. If the predator keeps taking the eggs she will never stop.
- An animal's "reproductive effort" is the fraction of her body weight which she deposits daily in her future offspring. A hen's reproductive effort is 100x that of a human.
- An egg weighs 3% of a typical hen's weight, and she may lay an egg almost every day.
- Imagine a human woman having a four-pound baby every day!
- An industrial hen may produce eight times her body weight in eggs over the course of her year-long life.
- A hen expends 25% of her daily calorie budget on egg-making. (Ducks expand half their energy on egg-laying!)
- Hens have only one ovary.
- Hens store sperm inside their oviducts. After the germ cell has accumulated enough yolk from the fats and proteins in a hen's liver, but before the egg white is added or the shell is formed, if the hen has mated recently some of the sperm will fuse with (fertilize) the germ. Either way the egg will still get laid.
- An eggshell has about 10,000 little holes, concentrated at the blunt end, to let air into the egg while the embryo is developing. All these holes put together would be about as wide as the head of a pin (2 mm).
- Inside of an egg yolk you can see a flat little white disc attached to ropy white things that look (sorry!) kind of like boogers. The white disc is the actual germ cell, whether fertilized or unfertilized, i.e. the chicken embryo. The ropy white things are designed to keep the embryo from smashing itself into the walls of the shell.
- Good news! This means that you don't have to be queasy about eating unfertilized chicken embryos, or feel nauseous when you think about the texture of the yolk. That's just a bunch of fats and proteins from the mama chicken's liver. Only the little disc ever had any chance of becoming a chicken, even if it had been fertilized.
- By eating the yolk you are, however, stealing candy from a baby. Unfertilized baby chicken, that is.
- Modern industrial techniques transform feed into eggs with better than 33% efficiency, and feed into chicken meat at better than 50% efficiency. That is, you can produce a pound of eggs from less than three pounds of feed, and a pound of (broiler) chicken from less than two.
- Egg color is totally unrelated to nutritional value or taste and is determined by the protein composition of the cuticle, which it the outermost layer (designed to slow water loss and block the entry of bacteria through the pores, at least initially).
- Rhode Island Reds lay brown eggs.
- Chinese Cochins lay eggs with yellow dots.
- Chilean Araucanas lay blue eggs.
- The cross between a Chilean Araucana and a Rhode Island Red lays green eggs.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Nuclear weapons, use of
My uninformed reaction to the Nuclear Posture Review: Republicans are incorrect. The NPR statement is not important militarily. Responding to a chemical or biological attack with nuclear weapons is not an option we would want to exercise in any case. Suppose Uzbekistan or Nigeria, for some insane reason, hits New York City with a sarin gas attack that kills 4000 civilians. We are fully capable of destroying their whole national infrastructure with conventional military force (Army commitments in Iraq/Afghanistan notwithstanding). Using nuclear weapons would simply be a good way to kill a few million civilians for no good return. Realistically, we don't want to do that. Besides, if you really want those civilians dead, destroying their infrastructure will do it, over time via starvation, without the irrational negative PR associated with nukes.
So, you don't nuke someone who is too insignificant to harm you. The only nations we would ever realistically want to nuke are those who are currently unable to nuke us but are developing the capability to do so--Iran and North Korea, at least in the popular view--and those who cannot be defeated with conventional means. In the first case, Iran and North Korea are in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty so the new posture does not apply to them. More importantly, they have been in violation all along and we _still_ didn't nuke them, even under the "warlike" George W. Bush. Most likely we were never even tempted to nuke them. In the second case we're dealing with serious, existential threats. Now, if Russia and China got together with Japan, Canada and Mexico and dropped a few hundred thousand soldiers on our shores by surprise--probably by stuffing them inside of shipping containers--we'd find ourselves outgunned, defeated, and occupied in short order if we stuck to conventional weapons, and it would be very tempting (but risky) to use nukes to salvage the situation. I don't imagine the offical "nuclear defense posture" is going to have much to do with how that scenario plays out. In almost any other scenario I can think of, initiating an exchange of nuclear weapons with Russia is a sure-fire losing game for both sides, again without regard to the "nuclear defense posture."
The one area I can see where this could make us less safe is that, having declared that we will not commit "first use" of nuclear weapons, another country might be tempted to force a military confrontation over something important to them (Taiwan) when the terms are favorable to them, since they know they won't get nuked for winning (although both parties are presumably willing to respond once the other party has already escalated to nukes). Thus, the new doctrine makes Taiwan and Israel less safe, and probably Georgia, and maybe all of Eastern Europe too. It doesn't make the U.S. any less safe unless you believe our interests are intrinsically tied to theirs.
It does make it slightly more hazardous to be a U.S. Navy carrier group in the Indian Ocean, since you can now be wiped out without triggering a nuclear war. That's bad for you, but good for the rest of the gene pool.
I may be wrong about all this, I often am.
-Max
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"When people are married, instead of trying to get rid of each other, reflect that you have made your choice, and strive to honour and keep it." --Brigham Young
If you're so evil, eat this kitten!
Monday, April 5, 2010
How your taxes get spent
| Your Money Is Spent On | Your Share | % |
| National Defense | $4,828.00 | 20% |
| Veterans and Foreign Affairs | $1,016.00 | 4% |
| Medicaid, Food Stamps, and Related Programs | $3,303.00 | 14% |
| Unemployment and Social Services | $1,525.00 | 6% |
| Social Security, Medicare, and Other Retirement | $9,655.00 | 37% |
| Net Interest on the Debt | $2,287.00 | 8% |
| Law Enforcement and General Government | $508.00 | 2% |
| Physical, Human, and Community Development | $2,287.00 | 9% |
| Total Paid | $25,409.00 | 100% |
When I filed with TaxACT.com they computed a summary for me of where my taxes went. I don't begrudge $5K on national defense, and $500 for law enforcement seems okay to me too. The $12K on Medicaid and Social Security are of more concern to me, and $2K for the national debt is non-trivial too, especially given how low interest rates are right now. It's easy to imagine that ballooning to $5K or more per year once interest rates go back to normal levels.
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"When people are married, instead of trying to get rid of each other, reflect that you have made your choice, and strive to honour and keep it." --Brigham Young
If you're so evil, eat this kitten!
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Cheap Turpentine
This doesn't really need comment, does it? Sometimes theory is no substitute for practice, which yields experience and hones intuition. Plus I just think it's a funny quote.
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"When people are married, instead of trying to get rid of each other, reflect that you have made your choice, and strive to honour and keep it." --Brigham Young
If you're so evil, eat this kitten!
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Sketch-a-Move toy car
Plus, wouldn't it be cool if toy cars DID work like this?
http://www.vimeo.com/5125096
-Max
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"When people are married, instead of trying to get rid of each other, reflect that you have made your choice, and strive to honour and keep it." --Brigham Young
If you're so evil, eat this kitten!
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Temptation tax
When you're very poor, you have very little income to spend on anything other than food. There's very little spending on temptation goods. At some point you might start to spend more on these temptations. You can start to eat dosas, doughnuts, lots of things that you might not value so much, but they're around you when you have cash and you buy them. And of course because of the regressivity, that flattens out. Once you're over here, you can now spend on things like education, etcetera. So, we've got an S-shaped curve: very low spending on temptation goods at deep poverty, but an increasing amount as income increases and then it flattens out as you get wealthier.
If you have somebody like this, notice that being here is very good. Being [at the top] is very good. But moving from [along the middle of the curve] is ultimately pointless—it looks like your income has doubled, but so much of that extra discretionary income is being spent on wasted things, on things that you don't think are that important. [emphasis added]
The key thing is to find a way not to waste the gain on things you don't care about.
-Max
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"When people are married, instead of trying to get rid of each other, reflect that you have made your choice, and strive to honour and keep it." --Brigham Young
If you're so evil, eat this kitten!
Friday, February 26, 2010
Article: Can A Biologist Fix A Radio?
You might enjoy this short article by a microbiologist on the difficulties involved in making scientific progress in understanding complex phenomena like apoptosis--or a radio. It's quite readable, takes maybe ten minutes to finish.
Can A Biologist Fix A Radio?
[snip] How would we begin? First, we would secure funds to obtain a large supply of identical functioning radios in order to dissect and compare them to the one that is broken. We would eventually find how to open the radios and will find objects of various shape, color, and size (Fig. 2, see color insert). We would describe and classify them into families according to their appearance. We would describe a family of square metal objects, a family of round brightly colored objects with two legs, round-shaped objects with three legs and so on. Because the objects would vary in color, we will investigate whether changing the colors affects the radio's performance. Although changing the colors would have only attenuating effects (the music is still playing but a trained ear of some people can discern some distortion), this approach will produce many publications and result in a lively debate.
A more successful approach will be to remove components one at a time or to use a variation of the method, in which a radio is shot at a close range with metal particles. In the latter case, radios that malfunction (have a "phenotype") are selected to identify the component whose damage causes the phenotype. Although removing some components will have only an attenuating effect, a lucky postdoc will accidentally find a wire whose deficiency will stop the music completely. The jubilant fellow will name the wire Serendipitously Recovered Component (SRC) and then find that SRC is required because it is the only link between a long extendable object and the rest of the radio. The object will be appropriately named the Most Important Component (MIC) of the radio. A series of studies will definitively establish that MIC should be made of metal and the longer the object is the better, which would provide an evolutionary explanation for the finding that the object is extendable. [snip]
-M.
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"When people are married, instead of trying to get rid of each other, reflect that you have made your choice, and strive to honour and keep it." --Brigham Young
If you're so evil, eat this kitten!
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Theory and practice
You might find this article interesting. It's on commercializing a research tool for static analysis of software, and the surprising differences between academic requirements and commercial requirements. The article took me around a half-hour, and the whole thing was worth reading.
-Max
This is the research context. We now describe the commercial context. Our rough view of the technical challenges of commercialization was that given that the tool would regularly handle "large amounts" of "real" code, we needed only a pretty box; the rest was a business issue. This view was naïve. While we include many examples of unexpected obstacles here, they devolve mainly from consequences of two main dynamics:
First, in the research lab a few people check a few code bases; in reality many check many. The problems that show up when thousands of programmers use a tool to check hundreds (or even thousands) of code bases do not show up when you and your co-authors check only a few. The result of summing many independent random variables? A Gaussian distribution, most of it not on the points you saw and adapted to in the lab. Furthermore, Gaussian distributions have tails. As the number of samples grows, so, too, does the absolute number of points several standard deviations from the mean. The unusual starts to occur with increasing frequency.
For code, these features include problematic idioms, the types of false positives encountered, the distance of a dialect from a language standard, and the way the build works. For developers, variations appear in raw ability, knowledge, the amount they care about bugs, false positives, and the types of both. A given company won't deviate in all these features but, given the number of features to choose from, often includes at least one weird oddity. Weird is not good. Tools want expected. Expected you can tune a tool to handle; surprise interacts badly with tuning assumptions.
Second, in the lab the user's values, knowledge, and incentives are those of the tool builder, since the user and the builder are the same person. Deployment leads to severe fission; users often have little understanding of the tool and little interest in helping develop it (for reasons ranging from simple skepticism to perverse reward incentives) and typically label any error message they find confusing as false. A tool that works well under these constraints looks very different from one tool builders design for themselves.
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"When people are married, instead of trying to get rid of each other, reflect that you have made your choice, and strive to honour and keep it." --Brigham Young
If you're so evil, eat this kitten!
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
The Parable of Bob and the Bill
Posit: Day-old bread is better than nothing. Posit: Nothing is better than chocolate. Conclusion: Day-old bread is better than chocolate.
Once there was a man named Bob who attended a charity auction. The auctioneer explained that this was a pay-as-you-bid auction, like poker: you pay as you bid, and if you lose you don't get your money back. "That's dumb," thought Bob, "but I guess if it's for charity…" Then the auctioneer unveiled the item up for bid—a twenty-dollar bill. Bob, who considered himself a very rational person, looked around the room at the other thirty-odd people and thought, "If I bid and lose, I lose everything. If I win, I get twenty dollars. I have a one in thirty chance of winning twenty dollars, so the bid is worth $(1/30 * 20) = 67 cents to me." He immediately bid a quarter, hoping to make a profit, and put his quarter out in front of him.
Another bidder bid fifty cents, and someone else bid seventy-five cents. "Going once," said the auctioneer. Bob frowned in thought. "Odd. There's only three of us bidding. That raises my expected value to $6.67, so I can afford to bid a dollar rationally." The other bidders, after some hesitation, matched his bid and soon the price was at $5. Bob shook his head, "Let's end this," and bid $6.67. Further bidding would be irrational. Bob would pocket the $20, and they could all go home.
The third bidder immediately bid $10. "Oops," said Bob, now seeing the flaw in his reasoning. "No matter what the odds are, the payoff for winning is $20, not $6.67, so of course other people will bid above $6.67. My profit is the difference between my winning bid and $20, not between my winning bid and $6.67." So he bid $15, hoping for a 33% profit on his investment. Bidder #2 bid $17, and bidder #3 bid $18. Grumbling, Bob bid $19.99. Bidder #3 sat down abruptly. Bidder #2 hesitated again, then bid $21.
Bob couldn't believe it. "Who would bid $21 for a $20 bill?" he said to himself. Then with a sudden sick shock he got it. "No," he said, "bidder #2 already bid $17. If he loses, he lost $17. If he wins at $21, he lost only $1. Clearly it is rational to bid again to reduce his losses." And with the same sick certainty, Bob knew the same logic applied to himself. Bob bid: $25. Response: $28. "Again," thought Bob, "I have the choice between losing everything, only it's $25 instead of $19.99 this time, or paying $4 for a 50% chance at winning the $20. 50% of $20 is $10, and $4 is less than $10 so clearly the only rational action is to invest another $4." Bob bid $29, hopelessly, while the rest of the audience watched in fascination. This could have gone on for quite a long time but Bob's wife hit him with her purse and told him to stop being a nit. Bidder #2 won at $30. The auctioneer thanked them all, gave $20 to bidder #2, and put their combined bids ($18 + $29 + $30 = $77) in the charity cashbox. Everyone applauded and Bob went to lie down.
Last story for today: my dad went to med school in Louisiana when I was one or two years old. Some of my earliest memories are of Louisiana and Tulane University—going for stroller rides with my mom, playing in the pool, etc. I'm not sure but I think I might even remember the flood that buried the streets in over a foot of water. (Then again, I might be getting it mixed up with the floods from my mission, which I definitely remember, including what it did to our basement rooms: it was like an indoor swimming pool, which is bad news for missionaries. Or an indoor baptismal font, which is good news I suppose.) In particular I remember a large room, which must have been at Tulane, and one wall of the room was covered with transparent glass cubes or jars, stacked one on top of the other. In each jar was yellow liquid, and in the liquid floated a dead baby. I remember two babies in particular. One had a big corkscrew of a belly button that seemed several inches long and reminded me of a screw. The other baby had two heads. I thought that was quite interesting. I don't remember if this was before or after I saw the two-headed snake at the Santa Ana zoo, which was interesting because it was alive, but I think the baby was even more interesting because it was human and had arms and legs and stuff, which snakes do not. Anyway, I don't remember feeling scared at all but I wasn't sure why the liquid was yellow and I think I drew the obvious conclusion for a two-year-old at that—especially a two-year-old familiar with swimming pools and babies—and perhaps that did disturb me a little.
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"When people are married, instead of trying to get rid of each other, reflect that you have made your choice, and strive to honour and keep it." --Brigham Young
If you're so evil, eat this kitten!
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Rare earth technologies
As Deng Xiao Ping presciently commented, at a time when electric cars and wind power seemed like ecotopian wet dreams: "Arabia has oil, China has rare earth".
-Max
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If you're so evil, eat this kitten!
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Monday, December 14, 2009
Science is
-Max
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If you're so evil, eat this kitten!
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Thursday, December 10, 2009
WMDs
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/12/09/is_climategate_the_new_downing_street_memo_99468.html
I will note parenthetically that I was completedly fooled on Iraq, but had I listened to Greg Cochran's views here (http://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives2/archives2mail/mail227.html) I would have been a lot closer to correct, which is a large part of the reason I'm skeptical of Iran as a threat and trying to be appropriately skeptical of Afghanistan.
The really great thing about Cochran is he's quantitative, cogent, and fact-based. You can disagree with his priorities but you should always hear out people like this.
-Max
P.S. I didn't see this article at the time, but even though the surge in Iraq worked, should we have done it? Cochran discussed an alternative at the time. http://amconmag.com/article/2007/sep/24/00006/
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If you're so evil, eat this kitten!
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Why Object Oriented Languages Need Tail Calls
-Max
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If you're so evil, eat this kitten!
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Public speaking
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Metacognition
Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Leads To Inflated Self-Assessments
It turns out that the very thing which prevents you from being good at certain intellectual or social tasks also prevents you from recognizing that you're not any good at it. Fairly poignant stuff if you look at it from a certain perspective, since there may be things you think you do well (sense of humor?) which you're worse at than almost anybody without even realizing it. On the other hand, it may also explain why we we're so hard on ourselves on at stuff we're good at.
-Max
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If you're so evil, eat this kitten!
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Monday, November 16, 2009
Two-year-old reciting Gettysburg address
Dr. P_____,
If you have two and a half minutes, you will get a kick out of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvlsco7ux4g&feature=related
-Max
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Rock Is Dead. Long Live Scissors!
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Friday, November 13, 2009
Archaeology
[From Chaos Manor. May be of indirect interest to amateur Book of Mormon archaelogical enthusiasts. -Max]
'A wind arose from the south, strong and deadly, bringing with it vast columns of whirling sand, which entirely covered up the troops and caused them wholly to disappear.'
The supposedly unreliable Herodotus is vindicated yet again:
<http://news.discovery.com/archaeology/
cambyses-army-remains-sahara.html>
-- Roland Dobbins
Rock Is Dead. Long Live Scissors!
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)
Religion from a functional perspective
http://scienceblogs.com/evolution/2009/10/atheism_as_a_stealth_religion.php
The main purpose of a religion or a stealth religion, however, is not to describe the real world but to motivate a given suite of behaviors. One way to do this is by creating a stylized world without tradeoffs, in which the prescribed behaviors are portrayed as good, good, good for everyone and the prohibited behaviors are portrayed as bad, bad, bad for everyone. Behaviors with mixed effects are absent from the stylized world because they do not clearly tell the believer what to do.
This might be a good working definition for the work of a "false prophet" (see Matthew 24:11).
-Max
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Rock Is Dead. Long Live Scissors!
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F. Smith (manual, p. 69)