Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Iran intelligence report

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2007/12/unlike-most-of.html

My takeaway is twofold:

1.) The assessment is likely not overtly political. No surprise. That's not to say that an institution can't itself be biased--the CIA is supposedly notoriously liberal--but it's not specifically anti-Bush.

2.) It's not necessarily solid info either. "Whether it is new photographs, new human sources, or new signals intercepts, the fact that just two years ago, indeed just a few months ago, we were confident that the exact opposite of what the latest NIE says Iran is up to suggests that either we have multiple, unimpeachable sources of intelligence that have shown us the light; or the information we have is all over the map and drawing definitive conclusions is next to impossible. That our intelligence services have rarely penetrated a hard target like Iran, and the fact that the intelligence community has missed a laundry list of major strategic developments around the world, suggests the latter case is more likely. I am always willing to hope for the best, but the historical pattern is hard to ignore."

-Max


--
"The presentation or 'gift' of the Holy Ghost simply confers upon a
man the right to receive at any time, when he is worthy of it and
desires it, the power and light of truth of the Holy Ghost, although
he may often be left to his own spirit and judgment." --Joseph F.
Smith (manual, p. 69)

Be pretty if you are,
Be witty if you can,
But be cheerful if it kills you.

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