Thursday, October 21, 2021

Minimal APIs for .NET

For future reference: https://gist.github.com/davidfowl/ff1addd02d239d2d26f4648a06158727

Looks like simple application building will be much easier in .NET 6.0.

-Max

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Epistemology of Dreams

I believe I've just made a significant discovery about dreams.

I had a dream last night with many interesting features, besides the fact that it was in first person and involved a trip back to the Philippines and meeting a bunch of orphaned children and delagas. One interesting feature was that it explicitly featured in-dream deja vu, to the point where I not only asked the girl if we'd had this conversation before but speculated out loud about whether it was just deja vu. (From a waking perspective, it clearly was indeed deja vu.) Even more interesting, though, is my attempts to explain to some of the kids that I do in fact speak Cebuano as well as English, because they tell me something about how well my mind functions while asleep.

Specifically, in the dream, I knew that "kahibalo ka og Cebuano" wasn't quite right, that kahibalo meant "knowledge" but that that was kind of an Ilonggo way to say things. So I tried again, inside my head (another interesting feature of this dream is that it featured an inner monologue, separate from the dreamworld "plot"--I find this even rarer for me than first-person dreaming). I'm about 80% sure that what I came up with involved the word "pungutana" for "speak," something like "makahibalo ko pungutana og Cebuano."

That's interesting because my waking mind immediately recognizes that pungutana means "question" and not "knowledge" or "speak", which means that not only did my dream involve my dream-self creating a memory retrieval task for my brain, but that when my brain got it wrong, my dream-self failed to reject the failure and instead incorporated it into the dream as if it were accurate.

I think viewing dreams as a state of non-rejection and radical openness/gullibility explains a lot about dreams, or at least my dreams.

Incidentally, it did take my waking self more than a few seconds to remember that "makasulti ko'g Cebuano" is the Cebuano way to say it, and "kabolo ko Cebuano" is the Ilonggo way to say it. They use different verbs and different grammatical shortcuts.

-Max

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Friday, October 1, 2021

RE: "Maricopa County audit flags 57k+ ballot issues in a state Biden won by fewer than 11k votes"

RE: https://sharylattkisson.com/2021/09/read-maricopa-county-audit-flags-57k-ballot-issues-in-a-state-biden-won-by-fewer-than-11k-votes

Maricopa County audit flags 57k+ ballot issues in a state Biden won by fewer than 11k votes

It's unclear why most media reports have been declaring, contrary to evidence, that the audit somehow confirmed that Biden won the Arizona race fair and square. (You can read the audit at the link below and draw your own conclusions.) Though a hand recount of ballots was fairly close to the original count, that did not address the anomalies found, nor did it rule out invalid votes and fraud.

In addition to the problems flagged, auditors said it was impossible to conduct a complete audit because county officials failed to cooperate on some important matters. And some evidence was reportedly removed or destroyed prior to a subpoena.

Among significant problems uncovered were tens of thousands of people who voted from a prior address, which would technically invalidate the votes if one were to enforce election law. Likewise with 10,342 voters who potentially voted in more than one county.

In one particularly difficult-to-square anomaly, more than 9,000 more ballots were returned by voter than were sent out. In more than 3,000 instances, the official results do "not match who voted."

Remember all those stories around election time of people in Maricopa county who showed up to vote and were told they had already voted absentee (i.e. someone stole their vote)? I'm not sure but I think this might be an official statistic on roughly how many times that happened.

Obviously in a democracy we can't permit this to happen again, going forward. It undermines trust in the election result, which is bad for both the winner of the election and for the country. IWe need better security for mail-in votes, or we need to eliminate mail-in voting.

This is not a partisan issue. Democrats and Republicans should both be backing election security.

-Max

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Thursday, August 26, 2021

Optimizing armies

The military often lies to itself and to civilian oversight (the President, Congress, the rest of us) about how well training of our own and allied troops is going and how ready they are for a fight. This has consequences.

From https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-26/why-america-cant-build-allied-armies

In Afghanistan and advisory missions across the globe, the United States relies on strategies to motivate its partners that do not work. The U.S. military prioritizes building relationships with foreign militaries over applying any sort of conditionality to its security assistance, and civilian officials in Washington defer to its approach. The United States then issues rosy reports to the American people about the progress being made by the local partner, which continue until the fateful day when the force is asked to operate on its own. And then Saigon. Mosul. And now Kabul.

...Why does the U.S. military persist with a strategy of advising that doesn't work? Like most large bureaucracies, it tends to institutionalize ways of doing business that serve its interests—in its case, autonomy, prestige, and access to resources. The military establishes standard operating procedures that advance its bureaucratic interests, and these SOPs tend to stick unless civilian leaders push hard for change.

Rapport-based persuasion may do little to incentivize local leaders to build better militaries, but it serves the U.S. military's bureaucratic interests. The gentle approach maintains comity with local partners and bolsters a narrative of cooperative partnership that legitimizes the entire advisory effort. In contrast, threatening local leaders with reductions or cessations of support could disrupt the U.S. military's own procedures and relationships. A more assertive approach to advising might also spark ugly conflagrations that call Washington's attention to the advisory effort, increasing the risk of civilian meddling.

If I were emperor of the U.S. military (so to speak), I suspect I could get more truthful readiness reports out of the military by using prediction markets to double-check official readiness reports? Let's say I allow soldiers currently in Afghanistan to invest up to $500 a year on either side of the proposition: "If the U.S. leaves Afghanistan within the next five years, the Taliban will take over at least 50% of the country." If the U.S. leaves Afghanistan during that time, and if the Taliban doesn't take over, anyone who invested in "No" gets $10 for every $1 they put in. If they do take over, anyone who invested in "No" gets $10 for every $1. If the U.S. doesn't leave the country during that time, everyone just gets their money back, with 8% interest.

If we had done this in Afghanistan, we would still have seen rosy official reports, but we would also have seen troops voting en masse with their wallets that the Afghan military would not and could not hold, and we might have been able to leverage that against both the military bureaucracy and the Afghan government: do whatever it takes to persuade the troops that you're ready to actually win a war, or you're fired.

Accurate feedback is a necessary first step on the road to optimization, and this might be one way to get accurate feedback.

-Max

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Thursday, July 15, 2021

On prayer and miracles

[Question and answer about religion from another context]

Q [Person A]: One more observation - or question.  If you don't think He does physical kinds of miracles (at least very often), does that view jive with how people in the scriptures experienced miracles?  If it is discordant with Book of Mormon or Bible (or other standard works) experience, why would that be?  Has the Church changed, has God changed, or have people just changed how they view God from when the Church was "restored" and if so, does that really leave room for a restoration of what is really no longer the case?  Hence, revisionism more than restoration.

A [Max]: I'm not sure I agree [that he doesn't do physical kinds of miracles]. What I'm saying is that His inclination to do physical kinds of miracles for me has apparently decreased as I've grown in spiritual maturity, which is why childhood is relevant. When I was very young, the answer to "I lost something" was typically "Here's where to find it." At a certain point I started getting the feeling the answer from here on out was increasingly going to be, "Here's how to be patient and unstressed while it's lost," and eventually "Here's how to go about replacing the lost things without suffering unduly from stress during the process." It doesn't mean I have ceased to lose things, or even ceased to lose things and then find them again, but the Spirit says to me that it's not (typically, for most things) even appropriate any more to pray to for a "physical miracle" in that sense because I've moved beyond them.

This doesn't mean other people couldn't experience physical miracles, which is one reason it's important for me to be very open-minded about how other people experience divine interventions, since we're all at different points in our progressions. But most of my divine experiences in the past few decades are more spiritually-oriented (read: concerned with conveying intelligence and making me a better, kinder, stronger person) since I don't really have many physical needs now. When I've needed physical interventions, such as after my injury in the Army, I knew I would get them if I asked for them and I did. If you classify finances as "physical" I also feel distinctly blessed in that regard as a result of paying tithing--not just that I have money, but the confidence that comes from knowing the Lord appreciates me taking my duty to him seriously and that if I ever needed more He would give it to me, because that's the kind of Man He is. (I'm sure you can relate though to the feeling of already having more money than you ever intended to have, and not really having anything in particular that you need to spend it on. You and I don't share much in common but I recognize that we (and also Gale) share an inclination to use our financial surplus for the benefit of others, such as generously tipping working-class taxi drivers and waiters at restaurants and strangers in need.)

But anyway, the premise that "you don't think He does physical kinds of miracles" is incorrect.

-Max

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Friday, June 25, 2021

Election Integrity and Audit Trails

[From a comment thread elsewhere. I think this is a good summary of the issues involved in proving to people that the winner of an election actually did win. -Max]

Person #1: Liberal here who never voted for Trump. Biden may have been a bland centrist at one point; today he is compromised both physically and ethically. Democrats are lined up in support of HR1, guaranteed to bring one-party rule to the USA for a hundred years. They're lined up in favor of discrimination against Jews, whites, anyone who fails to demonstrate sufficient zeal in the party's march toward authoritarianism. The party as a whole supports censorship and denial of due process based on tribal characteristics.

That defines a different form of government from the liberal Western democracies arising from the Enlightenment. I was a liberal Democrat from 1960 to 2009 (yes. I'm older than dirt). I have no party today.

Person #2: You've self-identified elsewhere in these threads as having once worked with an assortment of spooks, military guys, government officials, etc., in some capacity. If this is true, I would like to think from your experiences you come to TK with a unique perspective not shared by most here. That's a pretty dire forecast above. And it's rather broad in its generalizations. Anything that stands out in your mind that might bring all this to fruition? And why, for instance, you single out the democrats for their authoritarianism?

Person #1: We must restore the citizenry's trust in our elections. In two consecutive elections we've had half of the country believe the other half stole the election; no democracy can survive the loss of faith of its electorate. The key is the audit trail. That is the ability to trace the ballot from printing through conveying to the voter and the voter casting the ballot to the ballot's being counted and results certified. Anything that breaks the audit trail introduces the opportunity for mischief.

A broken audit trail isn't proof of anything; an intact audit trail, though is strong evidence of absence of fraud. Anything that weakens the audit trail can allow for the introduction of fraud. We need a front to back examination of the most recent two presidential elections, not to overturn them, but to identify where fraud might enter the processes. We then can address fixing vulnerabilities.

The vote-casting process begins with providing the voter access to one ballot. Is the person standing in front of me the one who is registered to vote? In most case we verify identity with government-issued identification cards.

We have used absentee ballots for years. The process was to provide identification and request an absentee ballot from officials. The absentee ballot is then provided to the voter or sent to her/him through the mail. That is a "pull" system. There is an audit trail starting with the request for the absentee ballot and completed with the receipt of the ballot at election headquarters, where the voter's signature is compared to the signature on an outer envelope. The outer envelope is separated from its contents to maintain secrecy of the ballot. The ballot itself is extracted from the inner envelope and put into the "cast" pile from which it will be counted and the vote added to the totals for all issues and elections on the ballot. All of this takes place in full view of representatives from all parties involved in the election.

If election officials mail ballots to the last known address of a voter, there is no way to establish an audit trail. That is a push system. A push system is guaranteed to send some ballots to the wrong address. About 20% of the U.S. population moves every year. If the home address was verified a year ago, there is a 20% chance that the ballot winds up in the wrong hands. If it has been two years, the usual interval between U.S. elections, the chance is 35% that it went to the wrong person. Many voters only vote during presidential elections every four years. During that time, a majority of voters will have moved.

The ballot can be returned via US mail, in person, or by a third party. The third party method is known as ballot harvesting. A single harvester may collect one hundred to five hundred ballots. If a ballot has been mailed out to the voter's last known address - the push system - then a ballot harvester picks it up for delivery to the election counting authorities, and the voter's signature on the outer ballot is not compared to her/his signature on the voter rolls, the audit trail has been compromised three times.

After arrival at ballot counting headquarters, everything is supposed to be witnessed by two or more people. Poll watchers are supposed to have uninterrupted access to all activities. If they do not, there is an opportunity for fraud to enter the process. I do not claim that there was any fraud in either the 2016 or 2020 election. My objective is to get a complete audit to reassure the electorate that our elections are not rigged.

The most secure method of voting is via paper ballot. When machines are used they can be manipulated or changed. One way that machines can be manipulated is via the internet. That is why there is no admitted internet connection to the machines. That is why machines are subject to subpoena and are rarely wiped clean until all possible subpoenas have been accounted for.

Federal law requires that voter rolls be reviewed every so often, perhaps every two or four years. That way on election day there should be no county in the country that has more registered voters than adults eligible to vote.

Of all that: HR1 prohibits requiring identification to vote, it prohibits comparing signatures for absentee ballots, it requires mass mailing of blank ballots to last known address for all voters, with the push system being required for use. It authorizes ballot harvesting for all jurisdictions in the country.

The election machines and software used in Fulton County, GA, reported results through a server in Europe, and were wiped clean while under subpoena. Broward County, FL, was one of 39 counties in the US that recorded more 2020 votes than adults; the county's rolls have not been purged of inactive or dead voters in years, accounting for four orders of magnitude greater number of centenarians living in the county than global average would predict. The chief of elections in the county routinely opened absentee and mail-out ballots with no one else present, and swore that the extraordinary number of people aged over 100 voted in ever election. She was finally removed. Practices such as requiring voter ID, requiring all counties to provide drop-off locations for ballots and purging voter rolls in accordance with federal law are all described by our President as "Jim Crow 2.0"

Why do I call out Democrats? I've never been a Republican; I was a Democrat until I realized the party had adopted pursuit of power rather than liberalism as its core. Have you heard a former smoker beat up on current smokers? I'm a former Democrat. Same thing.
 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Saturday, May 15, 2021

Incident

Something happened recently that hasn't happened to me in over thirty-six years.

Recently, I was driving on a narrow country road when my headlights showed in front of me a couple of people crawling along the road, as if looking for a contact lens. The one on the right's leg was outstretched to my right, and I swerved to miss them both. I didn't feel anything but when I glanced back in my rearview mirror the one with the outstretched leg seemed to be in pain, and the foot didn't look right. I didn't want to hurt anyone, but somehow I had. I was shocked and dismayed as I drove on, and after a little while it came to me that I'd just participated in a hit-and-run driving accident. I had to turn around and go back.

After another moment of hesitation I did--I turned the car around and went looking for my accidental victims. At this point it was starting to get lighter, and when I saw movement along the side of the road (near a baseball field as it happened) I stopped the car and got out, calling. The pedestrian called me back, greeting me by name, "Max!" I was surprised to see someone from my ward, and her daughter, apparently taking some kind morning jog or something. I asked if they had seen anyone with a hurt foot or leg, and they said no. I asked them to call me on their cell phones if they did, and I was about to get back in my car when another passer-by engaged me briefly in conversation (I forget exactly what), and then... I looked up in time to see the big dumpster behind which I had parked my car rammed by a huge semi truck driven by an annoyed driver, who apparently considered the dumpster to blocking the road. After ramming it, he then *shoved* the dumpster even further to the right, pushing it entirely off the road's shoulder. I hastened to get in my car so I could drive it off before the truck took offense to my car's positioning too (and I was definitely on the shoulder and not the road--I looked!) and then drove onward.

Around this time I became aware that something wasn't right. As I looked around the car, everything looked kosher for the most part--I could see fine in all directions, and I could move, but... something about the car's instrument panel was off. It was full of red and green little lights, more like an airplane than a car... and are cars supposed to *have* instrument panels??? At this point the unusual thing happened: I became aware that all the strangeness around me meant that I was actually in a dream. (Normally it never occurs to me until after I wake up.) As I resumed driving, I considered taking control of the dream and using it to manifest some old friends whom I love seeing, but for reason I didn't, and I drove onward looking for my erstwhile hit-and-run victims.

The last time I realized I was in a dream I was three to five years old, and I used the knowledge to escape from a cartoon snake that curled up to bounce itself like a spring from a pirate ship onto shore to chase me. (I pried my own real-world eyes open with my real-world fingers to get out of the dream.) This time, nothing quite so dramatic happened. I did become aware that I had a real-world body lying in bed, separate from my dream-world body whose hands were on the steering wheel, but there was nothing nightmarish to escape so I didn't.

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Sunday, February 28, 2021

Journal

Dear J.,

I'm going to make a point about spirituality by analogy with the game of Go.

Go is a simple but complex game where you take turns placing black or white stones on a board while avoiding capture by the other player's stones, and trying at the end of the game to have the most area surrounded or "controlled" by your stones. I've been learning to play it and I am quite bad at it, but one thing that helps me to get better is that when you play on online-go.com, there is so-called AI Analysis that runs after a game and tells you what your biggest mistakes were during the game and what you could have done instead. Not all mistakes are equal--the biggest mistakes are the ones that took you from "probably going to win this game" to "probably going to lose this game" all in one bad move, and learning to recognize what winning and losing look like is part of learning to play the game well. For example, in this screenshot I played my black stone at B4 (labelled "-92" because it turned a 92% chance of winning into a 100% chance of losing), but if I'd played at H4 instead (marked "0") I would have kept that 92% chance of winning. You can see from the "Win %" graph that I had a very brief opportunity there to turn the game around after white's mistake at B3, and I blew it because I didn't even realize I had it. 



Even though you can never play perfectly, you can survive making little mistakes because your opponent makes mistakes too, and the AI will help you identify those as well, afterwards, and show you how to exploit them next time.

Sometimes in order to practice, I'll start a game, play through the beginning (even the places where I feel like I don't know where I'm doing) until I'm definitely losing, and then resign and go look at the AI suggestions to see what opportunities I missed: what was the crucial point where I lost the game, and what should I have done instead?

I was pondering today about Q&As, and what questions I would ask Heavenly Father if I got a face-to-face Q&A with him, and the first two questions that came to mind were "How are you doing?" and "How am I doing?". And the thought occurred to me that this was exactly the same kind of question as AI Analysis for Go--asking an expert what was the biggest mistake I made today, so I can learn to recognize it and not do it again! And even though Heavenly Father isn't here in person right now, I think that this is the kind of question (unlike "What are you working on right now?") that can be answered through the Holy Ghost. I can get advice on how to be a better and stronger person, from someone who is a supreme expert on how to live a good life. I will still make mistakes, but the Enemy makes mistakes too, so if I can avoid the biggest mistakes I will have a good day. And when I lose, I can get advice on why I lost, and how to avoid it next time, and have a better day and be a better person.

I am so grateful for repentance and for the gift of the Holy Ghost.

Max

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Friday, December 11, 2020

Insight: To Be, or Not To Be

Hey, J., guess what?

I just realized that Hamlet's cryptic "To be or not to be" speech suddenly becomes plain if you think of "be" as an active verb, synonymous with "bide." He's contemplating the risk of rebellion against a king, and trying to persuade himself that the risk is worth it.

To [bide], or not to [bide], that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take Arms against a Sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them: to die, to sleep;
No more; and by a sleep, to say we end
The heart-ache, and the thousand natural shocks
That Flesh is heir to? 'Tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wished. To die, to sleep,
To sleep, perchance to Dream; aye, there's the rub,
For in that sleep of death, what dreams may come,
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
Must give us pause. There's the respect
That makes Calamity of so long life:

What do you think, makes sense?

-M.

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

What does 'salt that has lost its savor' mean?

I realized recently (within the last few years) that all of these thoughts are connected:

From 3 Nephi 12:

11 And blessed are ye when men shall revile you and persecute, and shall say all manner of evil against you falsely, for my sake;

12 For ye shall have great joy and be exceedingly glad, for great shall be your reward in heaven; for so persecuted they the prophets who were before you.

13 Verily, verily, I say unto you, I give unto you to be the salt of the earth; but if the salt shall lose its savor wherewith shall the earth be salted? The salt shall be thenceforth good for nothing, but to be cast out and to be trodden under foot of men.

14 Verily, verily, I say unto you, I give unto you to be the light of this people. A city that is set on a hill cannot be hid.

15 Behold, do men light a candle and put it under a bushel? Nay, but on a candlestick, and it giveth light to all that are in the house;

16 Therefore let your light so shine before this people, that they may see your good works and glorify your Father who is in heaven.

Salt that has lost its savor = those who grow contentious and revile against revilers.

Light that cannot be hid = those who remain peaceful and keep the commandments, "wise as serpents and as harmless as doves." That light CANNOT be hid. Sometimes we talk to youth about "letting your light shine", as a way to say "don't be shy," but the real message here is that "revilings and persecutions from those who speak evil falsely will not prevail--God himself will ensure that your example is like a light that he has put on a candlestick, and will shine brightly to those watching."

THEREFORE, our primary job is not to argue but to lead by example.

44 But behold I say unto you, love your enemies, bless them that curse you, do good to them that hate you, and pray for them who despitefully use you and persecute you;

45 That ye may be the children of your Father who is in heaven; for he maketh his sun to rise on the evil and on the good.

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Friday, October 9, 2020

Calendars

One of many interesting quotes from this Greg Cochran interview: https://soundcloud.com/user-519115521/interview-greg-cochran 

"Coalition warfare has its problems. Let me give you an example. There was a time in which the Russians and the Austrians were working together against Napoleon, and they were supposed to meet at a certain date, at a certain place. The Russians were eleven days late--can you guess why?"
"What, something with the Tsar not feeling like...?"
"Old-style calendar. They had forgotten to synchronize calendars! They didn't change the Gregorian calendar until the Russian revolution... Napoleon didn't have that kind of problem."

-Max

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Friday, September 4, 2020

On Character Development, Unexpected Kindness, and Suicidal Teens

On the subject of charity and tolerance: one of my favorite episodes of the family comedy American Housewife is Season 4, Episode 14, A Very English Scandal, for its subplot with Oliver. Bear with me as I explain why because this is a moderately long post and the context matters.

In this show, you've got main protagonist Katie, the mom, who in many ways is a terrible human being in order to generate most of the comedy, who is basically Jerry Seinfeld/George Costanza/Elaine Bennett/Roseanne Barr, and Greg, the dad, who is the easygoing history professor and loving-but-not-one-dimensional husband and father, and their three kids, of whom Oliver is the only boy and the Alex P. Keaton of the family: Oliver is arrogant and self-centered and mostly-one-dimensionally obsessed with making good impressions and making money and getting into Harvard to be better off than the family he comes from.

Prior to this episode and due to a ballet injury, Oliver has had to drop out of ballet (which he has been practicing for three years because Harvard has a ballet team which always needs more men) and took up volunteer work with Teen Help Line, because of the available volunteer opportunities it gives the most prestige with Harvard for the least amount of work. As expected, it mostly involves comforting teens from his rich hometown with ridiculous grievances, but in a previous episode, he got one call from a mysterious distressed caller who emoted briefly about how everyone thinks he's Superman, but he's not, and he's not sure he can take it any more, and then hung up.

And this strikes a chord with Oliver, to realize that there's someone in his hometown who is actually suffering, and he and his extremely wealthy best friend Cooper spend time trying to figure out who it is, and go out of their way to befriend the school's nerdy comic pariah who always wears Superman shirts, on the theory that it's probably him. He rebuffs their initial attempts to reach out, so they try even harder and dress up with their own nerdy superhero shirts to join him in the school cafe at lunch, whereupon he rebuffs them hard enough to persuade them that he genuinely doesn't want friends and has never heard of Teen Help Line.
And then they realize from an overheard conversation that it was actually the popular school athlete (and maybe quarterback? I'm not sure) who had called in, and he calls in to Teen Help Line again and Oliver is able to talk him into saying what's on his mind, and it turns out he's stressed because he's gay (and has never said it out loud before). Oliver tries to reassure him that it's not a big deal, but in the process Oliver gives away that not only is Teen Help Line staffed by people from their hometown, but that he actually knows who the guy is (Will something?), and the guy hangs up in a panic, and then later threatens Oliver in person that he better keep his mouth shut or else. Then he posts a fake Instragram account under Oliver's name confessing to the entire school that Oliver is gay.

And that's where this A Very English Scandal begins. In one of the B-plots of this episode, Oliver, selfish Oliver, is a little nervous about going back to school today to see everyone's reaction to "his" post, but has decided that denying it and denouncing the false post would just confirm Will's fears about becoming a social pariah. So he and Cooper just kind of ignore all the people whispering about them, and the comments from Oliver's ex-girlfriend about how that "explains a lot". Will comes by with his friends and makes some rude comments about Oliver's gayness, and one of Will's friends calls him on it, says that what Oliver did took a lot of guts, and that it's none of Will's business and to leave him alone, and then they walk off--and Oliver and Will make eye contact, and Will seems to understand. And at the end of the episode Will posts a confession about faking Oliver's "confession", and that it's actually Will and not Oliver who is gay, and thanking Oliver for showing him that it's okay.

And I think that is a great bit of character development and a great message! See, you don't need to be into superheroes and Superman to want people who are pariahs for being geeks to have the chance to be accepted (if they want to be), and you don't need to think homosexuality is a good thing to want people who have it to be treated well as human beings. (I doubt that Oliver's character thinks it's a problem either--but even people who do think it's a practical problem which often creates moral problems, such as me, can and do believe in kindness towards those who suffer from it.) I just love the way the whole Teen Help Line subplot was handled in this show: it's all about kindness and charity. And it's especially surprising because, well, it's Oliver, a.k.a. Alex P. Keaton, who is actually being kind to someone, without getting anything in return.

Also, the show is hilarious and the characters are just great. (I recommend starting at Season 4, the most recent, for a few episodes and then restarting at Season 1 if you like what you see.)

https://www.amazon.com/gp/video/detail/B07YGG7KNQ/ref=atv_dp_season_select_s4  

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Sunday, August 30, 2020

D&D adventure design: Why can't campaigns last to level 20 and beyond?

Known fact: D&D games tend to die out long before PCs reach 20th level, and based on what I've seen and read, too often it's not because the PCs die but because the campaign just ceases to be fun for either the DM or the players. A common observation is that "game balance" stops working before 20th level, but I think the real problem is that people keep trying to apply "game balance" long after PCs have reached a point where managing difficulty should be the players' problem and not the DM's problem. Posit: campaigns fail because players and DMs attempt to run adventures for high-level (roughly 13th-20th level) PCs with the same mentality and techniques that they use for low-level PCs (roughly 3rd-8th), and they don't scale.

From a power perspective, I think it's healthy to view reaching level 11 as basically reaching PC maturity, in a sense: once you get to Tier 3 there's really no threat or adventure that you can't potentially handle, with the help of your fellow PCs and some creative thinking. Level 11 PCs, working together, generally have the tools they need to kill demon lords and flood river-valleys. In general level 11 PCs and level 20 PCs can go on 20th level-style adventures together and both have a chance to survive. The 20th level guys may be worth as much as two level 11 guys put together, sometimes less, sometimes more, but they're all playing in approximately the same ballpark unless the 20th level guys are abusing broken spells like Planar Binding, Simulacrum, True Polymorph etc.--and even then, the 11th level guys can abuse them to some extent as well.

When it comes to adventures, I think it's worth designing them in basically four bands:

Novice Adventures [Levels 1-2]: Everyone is pretty fragile. Face low-level threats like zombies and goblins.

Veteran Adventures [Levels 3-4]: Twice as hard as Novice. Everyone is less fragile, but only moderately more [I]powerful[/I]. You are competent at facing enemies like ghouls and werewolves, but hill giants are still an impressive enemy at this point.

Delta-Force Adventures [Levels 5-10]: At this point you're basically operating as special forces. Much harder than veteran tier. Players begin to have lots of strategic options. Start to face vampires, mind flayers, hobgoblin armies, dragons. Beholders are an impressive and rare threat.

Superhuman Adventures [Levels 11+]: DM takes the kid gloves off, everything is full Combat As War, "encounter balance" ceases to be a concern. At this point you're just dealing with a gameworld, and whatever makes sense to be there in that world. You may face one beholder, or you may face a crashed Tyrant Ship full of dozens of beholders and a whole colony of Stone Giants whose minds they've taken over, and it's up to you to find a way to deal with the consequences. You may face a lone Death Slaad, or an exponentially-multiplying swarm of thousands of Blue Slaads and Red Slaads taking over the southern half of the continent. You may face betrayal from trusted NPCs, you may play enemy factions off against each other, you may have enemies whose existence you aren't even aware of even though they regularly Scry on you and seek ways to return your old defeated nemeses to life. Spell research, founding and running a kingdom, setting up a merchant empire... you can try anything here. There is total freedom but also a total lack of plot armor (although random tables may still imply structure to the chaos--if you are alone for a few weeks doing spell research when a random encounter table yields a wandering Demon Lord who potentially kills you and loots all of your magic items off your body, that random encounter result is still rare, it's just not unfair).

I'm still working on procedures for running Superhuman-level adventures, but I think it does make sense to smoosh them all together, conceptually, because that's the only way your campaign won't stall at high levels: you need to have been playing "at 20th level" all along, and actually reaching 20th level is just a reward for surviving repeated adventures which makes it less likely that you'll die in this week's adventure.

And if players want to stick to Delta-Force adventures with plot armor indefinitely, or even lower, there should be ways for them to signal the DM that they intend to do that, e.g. by remaining low-ranked within certain organizations instead of top-level operatives, or by not venturing into wildspace/Outer Planes/wherever the Superhuman stuff is mostly going on.   
 
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I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Gone With the Wind

Keywords: Gone With the Wind, novels into movies, original book, anthropology

Just after the opening credits of Gone with the Wind and before the start of the film proper is a title card that reads as follows (ellipses in the original):

There was a land of Cavaliers and Cotton Fields called the Old South . . .

Here in this patrician world the Age of Chivalry took its last bow . . .

Here was the last ever to be seen of Knights and their Ladies Fair, of Master and of Slave . . .

Look for it only in books, for it is no more than a dream remembered, a Civilization gone with the wind . . .

These are four very important sentences, because they're intended to shape the way we view the entire 238-minute movie. Down through the decades, they've continued to serve that function. But those four sentences were not written by Margaret Mitchell, the author of the 1936 novel on which the film was based. They aren't even remotely based on anything in the novel.

...Many people who've seen Selznick's movie but who've never opened Mitchell's novel have acquired the impression that the book is just what Hecht's title-card suggests: a gauzy, romantic take on the pre-war South. In fact, when the novel is mentioned in passing in accounts of the movie, it's often summed up by a statement to precisely this effect. For example, in a 2005 biography of Hattie McDaniel, who played Mammy in the film, Jill Watts, a professor of film studies at csu San Marcos, wrote that "In Mitchell's view, the antebellum South was an era of greatness." In 2004, Matthew Bernstein, a professor of film studies at Emory, described the racial politics of Selznick's movie as "less-than-progressive," while adding that "the film is less offensive than Margaret Mitchell's novel."

Did Watts or Bernstein read Mitchell's novel before they wrote those sentences? I doubt it. Because in the novel Mitchell doesn't depict the pre-war South as "an era of greatness."

The book sounds more interesting than I thought. I don't like sentimental takes on the South but from the article it indeed isn't one.

https://newcriterion.com/issues/2020/9/knights-their-ladies-fair 

-Max 

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Friday, August 21, 2020

Spaced Learning and Study Techniques

You may have noticed that when you have to actively recall information in response to a question, your brain learns it better. For example, when I'm watching Bones and the scientists are all like, "The hyoid isn't broken! So it can't have been suicide," and I say, "What's a hyoid?" and look it up and discover that it's a bone in the neck near the larynx, then my odds of retaining that information are much, much better than if I just read a list of bones in the neck in some medical textbook, without integrating that knowledge into a specific context.

It also turns out that there are some other psychological effects you can also exploit which enhance your odds of remembering things without increasing the amount of effort you put into it, and so-called "spaced learning" software exists to help you with this.

The idea is that if you're only going to view a given piece of information like a random list of digits ("555-5452") 5 times, your long-term odds of being able to recall that information ("how many fives are in that number?") are low if you view it 5 times in a row right now, but much higher if you view it now, in an hour, tomorrow, next week, and next month. So if you want to efficiently learn things without having to view the same information hundreds of times, you need something that keeps track of your intended learning and shows it to you only when it's time to give your memory a boost.

Here's the theory: https://www.gwern.net/Spaced-repetition#spacing-effect 

Here's a very basic tutorial for Anki (a free flashcard program using spaced learning) to show you how easy it is to get started. Essentially you just take screenshots or type in whatever you want to test yourself on, then it shows you the flashcard and shows you the answer when you're ready, and you tell it if you got it right so it knows how long to wait before showing you the same card again. Video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9GtFLAI2RU 

-Max 
 
 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Monday, April 27, 2020

Traps in Dungeons and Dragons 5E

[from another forum, in response to a question about whether having a Rogue with passive Perception 17 in the party makes it pointless for the DM to have DC 15 traps in a dungeon]

Traps have a perception component and a deduction component.

Perception: "Huh. There aren't any footprints on that brick."
Deduction: "Therefore, a poison arrow probably comes out of that hole when you step there."

There's nothing wrong with automatically giving the rogue the Perception component, and leaving the deduction up to the player. If he or she has a sufficiently high Investigation skill you can give them the deduction component too. "You enter the hall and immediately notice signs of a blowgun trap in front of one of the doors in the hall."

Even then, traps still aren't pointless because they are still dungeon features, e.g. the Rogue can potentially turn traps to his advantage by taunting monsters into them. Also, there will be some traps that can't be easily bypassed even if you know they are there (e.g. Glyph of Warding), and in those cases there's still a decision to make about whether or not to risk the trap in exchange for potential reward.

P.S. Additionally, I rather think passive Perception/Investigation is a bad match for traps because they do tend to make things static and boring: there shouldn't be THAT much difference between Perception 14 and Perception 15. Therefore I would recommend also allowing active Perception and Investigation rolls for anyone who is actively searching for signs of traps in a particular place, and if they ask for the specific thing ("are there any bricks without footprints?") I would give that fact to the player automatically without a roll.

In other words, the rather high DC 15 is just to notice signs of a trap automatically, without effort, as something you're always doing in the back of your brain. This justifies using even higher DCs for traps that are actually well-hidden and hard to spot even if you're looking for them, like noticing contact poison on a doorknob by the way it glistens (could easily be DC 25 = unnoticeable to a normal person without special training who isn't looking specifically for it).
 
 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Monday, April 6, 2020

On the Good Friday COVID-19 fast

I've long had a complicated relationship with fasting. For the longest time, from a religious perspective, I couldn't figure out what it was for or why Heavenly Father would care if you fasted prior to praying. In some ways it felt kind of like a temper tantrum--like holding your breath until you get what you want.

Ironically, the insights I needed came from the secular side of things, especially Dr. Jason Fung's writings on the role insulin and associated hormones play in the metabolic process. I found that fasting, especially extended fasting on the order of two days or more, does seem to quiet the body's urges and increase mental focus and clarity. (For example, my scores on speed reading and associated mental tests go up while fasting and down after eating, consistent with medical research, and probably with your own lived experiences with post-Thanksgiving torpor.)

Understanding the actual physical benefits of fasting puts at least part of the spiritual aspect of fasting into plain and sensible perspective.

I will be fasting as much as possible this week in preparation for this Friday's fast. I invite you to do so too, and to spend as much time in calm reflection/meditation/thoughtfulness/mindfulness as you can, including mindfulness of other people who are suffering, and seek ways to help. And if you choose to consult with God--whatever your religion, and even if don't believe He's really there or if He's listening to you--I believe that having your body in a fasted state will maximize your chances of perceiving and recognizing the quiet suggestions of the Holy Ghost to your spirit.

My best wishes to you all.

-Max



 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Monday, March 2, 2020

Writing Practice

Write a short story. The second sentence of the story must be, "And then the murders started."

I used to have a lot of friends. And then the murders started.

Don't get me wrong. Nobody ever blamed me, or thought I was responsible. It's just that after a certain point, you start to acquire a "reputation", and a lot of the people you thought were your friends just don't want to deal with it. It's simpler for them to close their eyes and avoid you.

For example, I used to hang out with this guy named Diggy. We were playing soccer, just like we used to do back in first grade, and I was goalie, and our team was ahead for once with twenty seconds left on the clock, but then Diggy gets the ball and he's driving right for me, right? And he fakes left and I buy it and dive in the wrong direction, and the goal is totally open and he kicks the ball... and a fat man's body falls out of a passing airliner and *splats* right on top of the ball, creating a huge mess and winning the game for my team.

Don't worry by the way, the guy was already dead before he fell out. Apparently it was some kind of insurance scheme. The guy's deadbeat brother worked for an airline and thought a plane's landing gear wheelwell would make a good hiding spot for the body. Don't ask--I never do any more.

After that Diggy never played another game of soccer with me. At first he made excuses and pretended to be busy, and then he started pretending not to see me when we passed each other in the halls.

On the other hand, you can tell who your true friends are because they stick with you. Take Elaine, for instance. Not only is she my best friend, but she's also helped me bury more bodies than I can count. It's true that most of them were just roadkill animals, which I also seem to attract, but the severed head we found in the cabin on our 6th grade field trip was definitely human and it was really gross, but she just helped me deal with it and didn't make it all weird or anything. I'd learned by that point not to literally _bury_ any bodies because the police get all upset if you disturb a crime scene, so we just moved the head outside and closed the door so we couldn't smell it as much.

Murders are the things that seem to bother people the most, but there's actually all kinds of weird stuff that happens. I sometimes wonder if these things happen to other people too and they just don't talk about it because they're embarrassed or something. Like that time last Tuesday when I was biking home from school and I found this map marked with a buried treasure X, and I followed the map and found an old treehouse in the woods and two twenty-dollar bills and a rusty old iron dagger with a skull carved on the crosspiece. And then as I was heading home, this raggedy bearded guy runs out of the woods, holds a gun on me, and steals the bike and the iron dagger and rides off. So I walked home. I guess I didn't mind that much--it was a pink girlie bike anyway.

When I got home, my mom said, "How was your day, Vladimir?"

"Fine, Mom," I said. "I got an A on my calculus test, and I made forty bucks adventuring." I went to my room and that's where I found the message from the Mouse King.

"No! More. Spiders! -M.K." read the tiny gold letters on red velvet.

[That's as much as I've got so far. -Max]  

 --

I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Saturday, January 4, 2020

The serpent beguiled me, and I did eat

Dr. Nehama Aschenasy, a Hebrew scholar, said that in Hebrew the word which is translated as beguiled in the Bible does not mean "tricked" or "deceived" as we commonly think. Rather, the Hebrew word is a rare verb that indicates an intense multilevel experience evoking great emotional, psychological, and/or spiritual trauma.

Ref: http://www.womeninthescriptures.com/2013/08/what-does-it-mean-that-eve-was-beguiled.html    

Aha! Apparently "beguile" is not an ideal translation. From now on when I read Eve's statement, I'm going to just think of it as "The serpent [complex verb]ed me, and I did eat." She's not making an excuse, she's just stating the facts.

-Max

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I could not love thee dear, so much,
Loved I not honor more.

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Movie review: Disney Star Wars #3, Rise of Skywalker

I watched Rise of Skywalker and it was glorious! I have so much to say. It started off slow--I had fallen asleep twice by the time Rey blew up the transport, once for a few seconds and once for quite a bit longer. But then the movie really hit its stride, and every two minutes, like clockwork, it began showing me new ways to be logically, physically, narratively, dramatically, emotionally, or tactically ludicrous. It was glorious, like a movie script written and directed by a middle schooler who hasn't yet learned to "show, don't tell" (i.e. use acting instead of exposition) but that WASN'T THE END OF IT! There was another hour of glorious nonsense to go, and by the end of it I had changed my mind: this wasn't a movie script written by a middle schooler. It was halfway between a movie script written by a third grader, and the incoherent stream-of-consciousness insanity my subconscious spews at me when I'm asleep.
Storm troopers dressed like nuns? Old man Lando hitting on the female version of Finn? Luke and Leia looking like a married couple, no Han in sight? Faceless hordes of Sith death cults? Three COMPLETELY DIFFERENT evil master plan climaxes from Emperor Palpatine in the same scene, none of them so much as acknowledging the previous climax? Kylo Ren going completely mute for the last third of the movie for no apparent reason?

The weirdness is transcendent.

It. Was. Amazing.

This may be the worst movie I've ever seen. Yes, worse than Last Jedi, worse than Thor, *maybe* even worse than Spielberg's AI: Artificial Intelligence. Maybe. I'm not sure. They both left me incredulous with laughter every few minutes, but I think Rise of Skywalker did it more frequently, and for more total minutes.

-Max